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Monday November 20, 2006 - 20:10:42 GMT
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Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report

New Zealand Dollar Quiet weekend sees NZD hold in range
The NZD continued to strengthen throughout both yesterday’s local session and overnight, with yield driven buying continuing to be one of the main factors supporting the currency. The G20 meeting over the weekend did not discuss the carry trade that has seen large borrowings in the weaker yen being used to purchase high yielding currencies such as the NZD. Stop-loss buying has pushed the NZD higher overnight, with NZD/JPY trading above 79.00.

Australian Dollar: AUD breaks 0.7700
The AUD has also gained some support from yield driven buyers following the G20 meeting in Melbourne. After trading under 0.7700 for the last week and a half the AUD broke through to reach a high of 0.7704, where it opens today. The AUD also saw some selling pressure against the stronger performing NZD. The NZD/AUD cross moved back to two week highs at 0.8695.

Major Currencies: Yen neglected at G20 conference
In the absence of any significant economic data overnight the market took its lead from comments, or more specifically a lack of comments, by Japanese officials at the G20 meeting in Melbourne held over the weekend. In particular, there was no attempt to talk the yen higher and that the effects of yen carry trades were over estimated. This led to a round of yen selling against most currencies with EUR/JPY benefiting the most by reaching a record high of 151.68. The euro also got a boost against the dollar after ECB President Trichet was quoted as saying the ECB is “strongly vigilant” on inflation and that other central banks should be too. Gains were short lived however as the euro ran into stiff resistance around 1.2850 and subsequently finished the session on its lows. GBP initially rallied after robust housing data but eased back from an intra-day high of 1.8988 to open this morning around 1.8960.

US leading index rises 0.2% in Oct. The leading index grow at a slower pace in Oct than Sep, which was revised up from 0.1% to 0.4% due to the subsequent release of very strong orders data (almost entirely due to Boeing). Money supply growth, consumer expectations and equity prices were the main contributors to the Oct rise; vendor delivery times, building permits and orders were the main offsets (though the orders number is a projected reversal of Sep’s strength, the data not actually available until 28/11). Interesting to note that the last two readings on the leading index are the first consecutive positives for the series this year.

Canadian wholesale sales fell 1.6% in Sep, although solid gains earlier in the quarter mean that Q3 still managed to deliver faster wholesale sales growth than in Q2 – a sign that GDP growth may have accelerated.

German producer price inflation slowed from 5.1% yr to 4.6% yr in Oct, thanks to lower energy prices.

UK house prices accelerated from 11.5% yr to 12.4% yr in Nov, according to the Rightmove real estate agents’ group. That is the fastest pace for two years. Other data included a mild deceleration in money supply M4 growth from 14.5% yr to 14.0% yr in October, and mixed mortgage lending data for that month from various industry groups (full figures from the BoE due 29/11). Also the Oct public sector net credit requirement was a bigger than expected repayment of £8.4bn, due to increased corporate tax revenues. This will enable the Chancellor to present some up-beat budget forecasts when he delivers his Pre-Budget Report on Dec 6.

Events Today
Date Country Release Last Forecast
21 Nov NZ Oct Net Migration (annual) 13.2k n/f
Q4 RBNZ 2-Year Inflation Exp’ns 2.9% n/f
Aust Oct Motor Vehicle Sales 3.0% n/f
US Fedspeak: Lacker
Jpn Bank of Japan Minutes
UK Nov CBI Industrial Trends Survey 9 n/f
Can Sep Retail Sales 1.0% –1.0%
Oct Leading Index 0.4% 0.4%
22 Nov Aust Sep Westpac-MI Leading Index 6.1% n/f
US Initial Claims w/e 18/11 308k 310k

Latest Research papers/Publication
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (20 November)
• Great expectations (16 November)
• NZ Oct REINZ House Prices (16 November)
• NZ Q3 Retail Sales Review (15 November)
• NZ Interest Rate Strategy Weekly (14 November)
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (13 November)
• NZ Q3 HLFS Review (9 November)
• NZ Q3 LCI and QES Review (6 November)
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (6 November)
These papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
Institutional Bank’s website (

Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 24 May 2005. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.


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AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
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