Tuesday November 21, 2006 - 05:03:31 GMT
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Daily analysis for USDCHF
Resistance: 1.2452 ... 1.2479 ... 1.2509 ... 1.2537
Support: 1.2420 ... 1.2396 ... 1.2361 ... 1.2340
Bias: While 1.2447-79 caps we look for losses to move down to the 1.2340-46 area before correcting
Daily Bullish: Losses seen yesterday as preferred although these stalled at 1.2396 and have caused some confusion over the wave structure. However, we retain a bearish preference. Thus to reverse back to a more bullish structure would require a break back above 1.2447 and also 1.2479. If seen then look for a move back to the 1.2537 high and probably to the 1.2558-78 resistance.
MT Bullish: The 1.2558-78 resistance has held and the decline on Friday looks bearish. Thus only back above 1.2558-78 would reverse higher for stronger gains back to 1.2669 and probably towards 1.2740-69. (November 20th)
Daily Bearish: Although the route lower wasnâ€™t quite as expected we retain a bearish stance. This will require the 1.2447-79 area to cap (probably the lower) and for losses to move below 1.2396 which would then extend the downside to the 1.2340-46 area which should cause a slightly larger pullback. There does seem to be a risk of a small sideways corrective structure between 1.2424-42 before the dip.
MT Bearish: With the 1.2525-78 area capping on Friday we feel the downside should now come under pressure. This may see a small recovery from the 1.2340-46 area but remain bearish for 1.2114 & probably lower. (November 21st)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
Wave B looks complete at 1.2537 and thus remain bearish in Wave C to 1.2114 at least (being wave equality) and probably 1.1950 being a 138.2% projection.
With the reversal lower we would normally expect a retest of the 1.2346 low in the first leg of Wave C lower. This should keep price below the 1.2447-79 area to see this test and at that point we can assess how the wave structure is developing but the medium term should imply a decline to the 138.2% projection at 1.2114 and we suspect a little further to the 161.8% projection at 1.1950 â€“ and just above this yearâ€™s low at 1.1919.
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