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Tuesday November 21, 2006 - 11:37:30 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange -

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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• Thanksgiving week could be deterring short-term directional players.
• EUR-JPY fails to extend yesterday’s initial push higher, although upside remains generally favoured.
• Japanese government economic report due tomorrow.
• Canadian retail sales could be crucial for the CAD.
• UK CBI survey mixed - but the MPC will be concerned about price expectations.

Market Outlook

EUR-JPY was unable to sustain yesterday’s initial gains andfailed to close above 151.50. It started to recover again in early European trading but has again slumped back and one wonders whether the prospect of a Thanksgiving week (typically characterised by questionable liquidity) is deterring some players from chasing EUR-JPY higher. For many in the US market the week will probably be finishing early on Wednesday afternoon. However, current relative interest rate prospects still suggest ongoing vulnerability for the JPY and unless this is rectified by the emergence of some stronger Japanese data, a EUR-JPY move higher still looks likely at some point. There are more Japanese releases tonight (see below), while tomorrow also sees the release of the government’s latest monthly report and reports in the weekend media suggested that a modest downgrade (to the consumer) is likely. If this is the case it would increase the pressure against a BoJ rate hike.

EUR-USD has been calm and with the top end of the trading range not too far away a drift lower may be seen over the next couple of days. Thanksgiving may have also come to GBP’s rescue yesterday, with the move in EUR-GBP back below 0.6770 perhaps another sign of a general unwillingness to maintain positioning through such a low liquidity week.

GBP has been further supported by this morning’s CBI survey. The total orders balance bounced back to -6 after the unusually weak -20 number the previous month, with export orders (up at +3 from -11) the main driving factor. Output expectations remained soft at +5 down from +8. However, output price expectations (+19 from +12) were the highest since the +19 number also seen in January 2005. One has to go back to the +27 reading in March 1995 for the last time +19 was bettered. This will raise concerns about what manufacturers have planned by way of 2007 price adjustments, many of which are reviewed for introduction in the New Year.

USD-CAD is starting to shape up quite positively from a technical perspective. Last week’s break above 1.1400-25 and the ability to hold this area yesterday was encouraging and yesterday’s weak wholesale sales number also added to negative CAD sentiment. However, this is Thanksgiving week so a soft retail sales number may be needed today to keep this going (see below).

Day Ahead
Canada – retail sales picked up in Jul and Aug after the lull before the Jul sales tax cut, although most of this has been on autos. The overall trend in spending seems to be slightly weaker than it was earlier in the year and the BoC had been banking on strong domestic demand being a key support for the economy. The market is already expecting lower sales for September.

Japan – trade data tonight will show how exports are faring and even though they fell m/m last month, this was small in relation to the gains seen in previous months. Indeed, if exports were to start weakening it would strip the economy of one of its main supporting factors this year. Also out is the all-industry activity index and this is likely to be weak (in line with the tertiary index already released).

Data/event EDT Consensus*

US Chain store sls (w/e Nov 18) w/w 07.45 -0.8% last
CA Retail sales (Sep) m/m 08.30 -0.9%
CA Retail sales ex-autos (Sep) m/m 08.30 -0.3%
CA Leading indicator (Oct) m/m 08.30 +0.3%
US Redbook sls (w/e Nov 18) m/m 08.55 +0.3% last
US ABC consumer conf (w/e Nov 19) 17.00 +1 last
JP Trade balance (Oct, sa) 18.50 ¥667bn
JP All industry activ’y index (Sep) m/m 18.50 -1.0%

Latest data Actual Consensus*
FR GDP (Q3, 2nd est) q/q 0.0% 0.0%
IT Ind orders (Sep) y/y -5.2% -4.0%
GB CBI orders bal (Nov) -6 -20 last
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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