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Thursday November 23, 2006 - 11:02:25 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Dollar sell-off ahead of Thanksgiving holyday in Japan and USA.
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The dollar fell to a 5 Â˝-month low against the Euro and a two-month low against the Yen on Wednesday in thin trading and light Forex news impact. Investors sold Dollars overnight to reduce risks ahead of today holidays in USA and Japan. The University of Michigan Confidence came out softer than expected at 92.1 vs 93.1 and previous 93.6, which added more weakness to the Dollar. Investors trading on Carry trades, borrow low-yielding to buy higher-yielding currencies, have been not much impact by the market pull-back. We could see that currencies which have the lowest yield as Yen CHF and SEK rose the most against the Dollar on Wednesday. EurUsd jumped to its highest since June at 1.2957 almost 0.9% up. Many Dealers are looking at EurUsd 1.3000, a key level not seen since April 2005. The recent sell-of is mostly due by short-term investors but a break of this 1.3000 level may push long-term investors as Institutional to enter the market with larger volumes. UsdJpy went down 1.3% at lowest 116.37 near the 2-month low 116.07. UsdChf dropped nearly 1.25% to 1.2256 yesterday lowest. It is a 2 Â˝-month low. This week, as the Federal Reserve is â€śseatingâ€ť on interest rates, could be a four-day weekend for many market players.
Todays Key Issues:
Thanksgiving holidays in Japan and USA today.Are due at 9:00 GMT November German IFO; Business Climate expected 105.2 vs 105.3, Current Assessment expected 112 vs 111.80, Expectations forecasted 98.8 vs 99.2, Euro-Zone September ECB Current account previously -6.9B. NZD October Trade Balance due at 21:45 GMT is expected -650M vs -587M.
The Risk Today:
EurUsd has rebound from 1.2760 on Nov 17 low and broke up 1.2901 former resistance and former 1.4941 trend resistance. A break of next 1.2981 is expected to give further upside and test the psychological 1.3000 level. USDCHF remains heavy below 1.2583 and 1.2346. It had further weakness and dropped under 1.2291, which could give a way to extended slippage 1.2185 trend support. GbpUsd defined support at 1.8840 last Friday and did extend the past week's rally towards 1.9050 (61.8% retracement) and 1.9144 key resistance. It is ultimately targeting 1.9182. After consolidation, UsdJpy broke down 116.60. This new directional move is likely to test 116.06 range.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.3131 S ||1.9550 T ||119.90 T ||1.2707 S |
|1.3000 P ||1.9320 M ||118.60 S ||1.2583 S |
|1.2981 S ||1.9219 S ||116.60 S ||1.2346 K |
|1.2970 ||1.9161 ||116.37 ||1.2233 |
|1.2941 M ||1.9144 K ||116.06 T ||1.2185 S |
|1.2750 M ||1.9050 S ||115.61 S ||1.2014 S |
|1.2450 T ||1.8840 K ||113.45 T ||1.1948 T |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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