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Friday November 24, 2006 - 11:22:51 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Strong IFO German Business sentiment boosted the Euro
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The IFO Business climate index rose to 106.8 vs expectation for a fall 105.20 in November from 105.3. This strong IFO strengthened expectations that the ECB could continue hiking rates next year, after a widely expected move to 3.5% next month. Also on Thursday, data showed strong private consumption, exports and investment powered German growth at 0.6% in the third quarter. Economists said that German exporters can live with the euro at current levels around EurUsd 1.3000 but would suffer if it climbs above 1.3500. Euro zone inflation risks are on the rise and interest rates are still likely for growth, ECB Council said yesterday. The Euro hit a 5 1/2 â€“ month high against the dollar for a second day on Thursday, boosted by the strong German Business sentiment reading in trade thinned by public holidays in the United States and Japan. The Dollar also weakened against low-yielding currencies, falling to a 2-month low of 116.20 Yen and a 3-month low at 1.2230 CHF. The Euro also fell against the Yen to 150.60 and hit a 7-week low against the CHF at 1.5840. Analyst said that the move suggested investors were losing their appetite fore carry trades, but the Dollar would need to fall down to 113 Yen of 1.2000 CHF to confirm such a view.
Todays Key Issues:
Following Thanksgiving, this Friday will be a very light news day. Are due at 9:30 GMT; UK Gross Domestic Product 3Q is expected 0.7% unchanged (QoQ) and 2.8% vs 2.6% (YoY), with less impact UK Private Consumption 3Q 0.6% vs 0.9%, Uk 3Q Government Spending 0.6% vs 0.8%, UK Gross Fixed capital Formation 3Q expected 1% vs 0.6%, UK September Index of Services (QoQ) expected 0.8% vs 0.6%.
The Risk Today:
EURUSD maintains a positive outlook following recent gains that have now brought key resistance at 1.2980 into focus. A break of this resistance will pave the way for a test of 1.3000. On the downside, look for support at 1.2941 and 1.2750. USDCHF remains vulnerable following recent losses that have now exposed 1.2185 support. This level marks a strong support where a break would pave the way for further USD downside. Initial resistance is located at 1.2346 former support. GBPUSD the powerful jump this week paves the way for a test of resistance at 1.9185 where a break would set the scene for further upside towards 1.9325 and 1.9550. On the downside, support lies at Wednesday's low of 1.9144 key. USDJPY Sharp losses in USDJPY on the back of broad USD weakness sets the scene for further tests of support at 116.06 where a clear break would expose 115.61. Resistance lies at 116.60 and 118.60.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.3131 S ||1.9550 T ||119.90 T ||1.2707 S |
|1.3000 P ||1.9320 M ||118.60 S ||1.2583 S |
|1.2980 S ||1.9219 S ||116.60 S ||1.2346 K |
|1.2970 ||1.9179 ||116.32 ||1.2207 |
|1.2941 M ||1.9144 K ||116.06 T ||1.2185 S |
|1.2750 M ||1.9050 S ||115.61 S ||1.2014 S |
|1.2450 T ||1.8840 K ||113.45 T ||1.1948 T |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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Wed 18 Oct /ul>
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
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Thu 19 Oct
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John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.
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