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Friday November 24, 2006 - 11:30:33 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange - https://fx.mellon.com/

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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• USD weakens across the board - EUR-USD breaks higher.
• Yesterday’s German IFO supports higher ECB rate hike expectations.
• NZD shrugs off trade data.
• German CPI features today.

Market Outlook

EUR-USD rose sharply early in the European morning following the break above the previous 2006 high at 1.2978. The USD is weaker right across the board. There is room for some scepticism given that it is Thanksgiving week, although there is no doubting the significance of the price action in technical terms and this in itself may continue to drive behaviour going into next week. However, it would still be good to see how EURUSD fares once a fully populated market returns next week.

Yesterday’s German IFO number was impressive and we continue to believe that there is upside risk to the market’s forecast on ECB rates – we look for 4% in Q2. On the face of it this is a positive for EUR-USD, although at some point in the next couple of months a rebuilding of US rate hike risk is also likely and this would perhaps be the more surprising development in relation to current market sentiment. The big question is whether there is a window of opportunity for EURUSD to build on the current news flow before positive USD news arrives. Current price action would suggest that this is now underway, although developments next week will be key. 1.3125 is the next resistance point on EUR-USD.

The NZD was temporarily affected by a higher than expected trade deficit, although the market was probably comforted somewhat by the fact that the import strength behind the deterioration could plausibly add to arguments in favour of a rate hike. Furthermore, the data is not adjusted for seasonal factors and fairly volatile, so another month of data needs to be seen. Still, if there is a fresh trend deterioration in this number it would present a large risk to the NZD.

Day Ahead
Eurozone – German CPI is likely to stabilise after the lower y/y rate seen over the past couple of months. That weakness was due to weaker energy prices, the core rate (see chart) being steadier. There is also talk of some price setters bringing forward price rises ahead of the VAT hike. Overall, this data is unlikely to add anything new to ECB policy expectations, which remain in the ascendancy in any case after other data strength.

Diary
Data/event EDT Consensus*

DE CPI (Nov, prel) m/m n/a -0.2%
DE CPI (Nov, prel) y/y n/a +1.4%

Latest data Actual Consensus*
NZ Trade balance (Oct) -NZ$1.2bn -NZ$0.6bn
DE Import prices (Oct) y/y +3.0% +2.8%
FR Own company ind outlook (Nov) +17 +17
FR Business climate indicator (Nov) 107 107
SE Trade balance (Oct) SEK10.6bn SEK9.8bn
NO Unemployment rate (Sep, sa) 3.3% 3.3%
GB GDP (Q3, 2nd est) q/q +0.7% +0.7%
GB Index of services (Sep) q/q +0.8% +0.8%
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005

 

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