Wednesday November 29, 2006 - 05:33:01 GMT
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Daily Analysis for USDJPY
Resistance: 115.90 ... 116.25 ... 116.40 ... 116.60
Support: 115.57 ... 115.37 ... 114.98 ... 114.80
Mixed â€“ while 115.57-60 supports there is still chance of a move to 116.92 else see a larger decline
A mixed day with refusal to move above 116.40 but the downside being supported around the 115.60 pivot support. If there are to be further gains â€“ which is what weâ€™d prefer â€“ then we need a move back above the 115.90 pivot area and back tot eh 116.40 high. Larger resistance is at 116.92-95 which is expected to cap. Next resistance is at 117.20-25.
Price has bounced from the 115.40 pivot support. However the wave structure does look more bearish and we would require a break above 117.00-25 to generate a move back to 118.58. (November 28th)
We have seen test of the 115.60 support this morning which has held with only minor slippage. This really needs to break to confirm further losses. Note resistance at 115.90-00 and while a direct downside is valid it would be better for this to hold with loss of 115.57 then 115.37 signaling losses to 115.00 at least being the last resort for support. Any breach would trigger losses through to 113.97 at least.
A cycle low is due and thus we need to be cautious about continued losses. There is support at 115.40-76 and only breach extends to the 113.97 intermediate target & possibly 113.19-42. (November 29th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
No change to yesterdayâ€™s wave analysis though we have firmed up what we feel is the right count and this would suggest a Wave (b) pullback of around 50% which implies a target around 116.92-98 which is also where Wave c will equal Wave a. Also note pivot resistance around 117.20-25.
The wave structure is still unclear but until the 115.00-37 area is broken there is still risk that this Wave (b) can continue with the 116.92-97 area still implicated.
A direct loss of 115.00 (a possible expanded flat support area) would keep the downside intact for the 138.2% extension in Wave (iii) at 113.97 and at most the 161.8% extension at 113.19-42.
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