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Wednesday November 29, 2006 - 10:52:05 GMT
Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com

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Searching for Waldo

Key News
· Japan's industrial output rose unexpectedly in October. (Reuters)
· Key Reports:
7:00a.m. MBA Refinancing Index. For Nov 17 Wk. Previous: +6.5%.
8:30a.m. Initial Jobless Claims. For Nov 18. Expected: +2K. Previous: -2K.
10:00a.m. End-Nov U Of Mich Consumer Sentiment. Expected: 93.0. Previous: 93.6.
10:00a.m. DJ-BTMU Business Barometer. For Nov 11. Previous: +0.1%.

Quotable



“Federal Reserve officials are getting a first-hand lesson in the law of diminishing returns: Try as they might, they can't seem to get the same mileage from their hawkish rhetoric.”

Caroline Baum

FX Trading – Searching for Waldo
The Fed keeps talking about all this “inflation.” Is it a game of Where’s Waldo?
Our search is on…

We can’t find Waldo in the 30-yr T-Bond:

Nope! Can’t seem to locate him in the CPI chart either:


Source: Economagic.com

Hmmm…he seems to be missing from the latest Durable Goods orders…an October plunge of
8.3% …


Source: Census

And I doubt we’d find Waldo here, given that the price decline for new homes is falling off the chart…a fall of 3.5% in October, the largest drop in recorded history…(P.S. those gray areas on the chart below represent official recessions)



Source: Northern Trust






The bond “vigilantes” don’t seem to be finding Waldo either…as the curve inverts even further in the face of tough talk from Mr. Bernanke…



There is some talk that among those more adept at Where’s Waldo than we, suggesting he is hiding somewhere in unit labor costs…



But if we are finally starting to see the off the charts fall in housing prices scare the heck out of some of the 69% of US households that own such assets, doesn’t it make sense they might stop buying cars and appliances as reflected in the Durable Goods number? And if that trend continues, which it just might, isn’t it likely business that produce that stuff will start needed fewer employees to produce that stuff? And if those dwelling prices keep tumbling, won’t it be harder for owners to use them as collateral to withdraw cash to buy new cars or appliances? (Read self-feeding aspect here…)

Feedback loop…stock market? ...Maybe a place where Waldo is really hiding….

S&P 500 futures daily:


But if Waldo’s hiding here, it may only be temporary…as Paul Kasriel of Northern Trust surmises… [Our emphasis]

“In addition to revisions to third-quarter GDP data, the Commerce Department will release its first estimate of third-quarter corporate profits tomorrow, November 29. As Chart 1 shows, quarter-to-quarter profit growth slowed sharply in the second quarter – to 1.45% from 12.60% in the first quarter. Based on third-quarter labor cost data, I suspect that third-quarter corporate profit growth, measured sequentially, will remain tepid, at best. On a year-over-year basis, however, corporate profit growth is likely to appear rosier given the Katrina-depressed profits in the third quarter of 2005.

“With unit labor costs rising relative to selling prices and with sales volumes slowing, it is difficult to see how corporate profit growth in the near-term can be very strong. And if profit growth slows, where will corporations get the funds to continue “retiring” equity at a record pace – a factor supporting share prices and household deficit pending?”


Is the US dollar already telling the story—Waldo has left the building!

S&P 500 Index vs. US $ Index Daily:


Jack Crooks, Black Swan Capital www.blackswantrading.com




 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

Forex Trading Outlook


Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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