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Thursday November 30, 2006 - 10:27:04 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Dollar found little support in US data and European officialsâ€™ comments.
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
US Q3 GDP growth was revised up to 2.2% annualized in the second estimate. While that is higher than the 1.6% in the initial estimate and the 1.8% consensus, it still represents a further slowing from the 2.6% in Q2. The upward revision was mainly due to changes in the estimates of inventories and net external demand. Inventories are now estimated to have added 0.2% to GDP growth. Overall, a slightly better than expected report, but it doesn't change the basic facts; growth is slowing and will continue to do so in Q4. We expect Q4 GDP growth to come in at between 1.5% and 2.0%. Question remains; does the Federal Reserve will need to cut interest rates in the first quarter of 2007? The Dollar rose on Wednesday, pushed by previous report and warning from European officials about the Euro recent surge. EurUsd was consolidating after five straight bull sessions. Also, GbpUsd is holding a strong bullish tone just over the recent high 1.9545.
Todays Key Issues:
Due at 10:00 GMT; Euro-zone November Consumer Confidence expected -8 unchanged, Euro-zone November CPI Estimate 1.8% vs 1.6% (YoY), Euro-zone 3Q GDP expected 0.5% vs 0.9% (QoQ) and 2.6% vs 2.1% (YoY). GB November GfK Consumer Confidence Survey due at 10:30 GMT is expected -5 unchanged. Are due at 13:30 GMT; CAD September GDP expected 0% vs 0.3% (MoM) and 2% unchanged (3Q annualized), US October Personal Income and Personal Spending respectively expected 0.5% and 0.1% unchanged, US October PCE Deflator 1.4% vs 2%, US PCE Core expected 0.1% vs 0.2% (MoM) and 2.3% vs 2.4% (YoY). Due at 15:00; US November Chicago Purchasing Manager expected 54.5 vs 53.5 and 3Q House Price Index previously 1.2%. Due at 23:30 GMT; JPY October Jobless Rate is expected 4.2% unchanged, Tokyo November CPI expected -0.1% vs 0% (MoM) and 0.5% unchanged (YoY), National November CPI expected -0.1% vs -0.3% (MoM) and 0.6% unchanged (YoY).
The Risk Today:
EurUsd uptrend remains intact with the recent pullback seen as a correction. With 1.3190 nearly cleared (76.4% retracement of the 1.3663 to 1.1644 decline) the focus will shifts to 1.3480 (March 2005 high). Initial support lies at 1.3086. This level would be expected to hold to prevent a test of key 1.2980 level. UsdChf is likely to remain vulnerable near term with attention on the key 1.1920 support. Intraday momentum conditions remain bearish and any short-term bounce would be viewed as a correction. Initial resistance is located at 1.2185. GbpUsd, the positive outlook remains and the focus is on the key resistance at 1.9550. Supports are located at 1.9565 and 1.9325, now far away from 1.9144 Key level. UsdJpy Recent consolidation is seen as a bear flag continuation pattern; that highlights the potential for an extension of the recent decline. The next downside pivot point is 115.40, where a break would pave the way for a move towards 114.45 (50% retracement of the 108.98 to 119.90 decline). The outlook remains bearish with initial resistance at 116.60.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.3320 T ||2.0100 T ||119.90 T ||1.2583 S |
|1.3220 M ||1.9825 S ||118.60 S ||1.2346 K |
|1.3190 K ||1.9550 K ||116.60 S ||1.2185 S |
|1.3190 ||1.9540 ||116.09 ||1.2060 |
|1.3086 S ||1.9465 S ||115.61 S ||1.2014 S |
|1.2980 K ||1.9325 S ||115.40 P ||1.1948 T |
|1.2941 M ||1.9144 K ||114.45 S ||1.1920 K |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Wed 18 Oct /ul>
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
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John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.
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