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Thursday November 30, 2006 - 12:12:23 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 30-Nov-2006...1158 GMT

EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
---------------------------
Read our current comments and trade recommendations on EUR-USD, USD-JPY and EUR-JPY by registering at http://www.kshitij.com/fxthoughts/fxthoughts.shtml#register

Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
---------------------



$-Swiss @ 1.2069/74....Range 1.2020-2120
----------------------------------------
R: 1.2112-22 / 1.2138
S: 1.2050 / 1.2018 / 1.1980
$-Swiss is trading within a range of 1.2010 and 1.2120 so far this week and is currently in the middle of this range. An eventual bearish break of this range is expected which would target 1.1919 (Low of May-06).

For today, the Supports are 1.2050 and 1.2018, which is the statistically projected Max Low on the daily. If that is broken (chances 35-40%) then there may be a fall towards 1.1980. On the upside the Resistances are coming in at 1.2112-22 and then at 1.2138, the statistically projected Max High for the day. The bias for the day is neutral.

Order:
Buy $25K at 1.2033, SL 1.2000, TP 1.2090


Cable @ 1.9556/61....Buy dip
-----------------------------
R: 1.9582 / 1.9621 / 1.9700
S: 1.9550-40 / 1.9500 / 1.9455
The Cable surged past the Dec-04 High of 1.9552 to record a High near 1.9582, the highest since Sept-1992. This is still lower than the pre-Soros/ BOE bust-up High of 2.01 seen IN Sep-1992. Now, if the pair trades consistently trade above 1.9552 for the next couple of weeks, there may be a rally towards 2.01 during the remainder of the year. Note that the pair is all set to have its highest monthly closing since Aug-92.

For today the Resistances would come in at 1.9582 and then at 1.9621, the statistically projected Max High on the weekly. Note the pair is currently trading near its statistically projected Max High for the day of 1.9562. If there is a rally above 1.9621 (chances 50-50), there may be a rally towards 1.9700 over today or tomorrow. On the downside the Supports are coming in at 1.9550-40 (Dec-04 Highs) and then at 1.9500. The statistically projected Max Low on the daily is at 1.9455. The bias for the pair is bullish.

Order:
Buy GBP 15K at 1.9510, SL 1.9440, TP open




Aussie @ 0.7870/74....Buy some
------------------------------
R: 0.7889 / 0.7910 / 0.7925
S: 0.7843-33 / 0.7810
The Aussie maintained its bullishness and it tested a high of 0.7880 during the day. The pair is currently trading near its statistically projected Max High for the day of 0.7869 but targets 0.7889, the statistically projected Max High for the week. A break above that would target 0.7910.

The pair needs a closing above 0.7843 on a weekly basis for a further upmove towards 0.7991 during the year. For the day on the downside the Supports are coming in at 0.7843 and then at 0.7833, the statistically projected Max Low for the day. A break below these (unexpected) could lead to a fall towards 0.7810. The bias for the day is positive and we expect a close above 0.7840 today

Trade:
Buy AUD 20K at current level, SL 0.7830, TP 0.7930




Happy Trading!

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
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13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
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13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
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13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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