Friday December 1, 2006 - 05:24:40 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Daily Analysis for USDCHF
Resistance: 1.1987 ... 1.2020 ... 1.2050 ... 1.2095
Support: 1.1952 ... 1.1919 ... 1.1880 ... 1.1853
While 1.2000-20 caps we look for losses to 1.1919 at least and there may be small penetration
Having reached the 1.1953 target area we are on notice that a reversal could occur. There is resistance at 1.2020 and only back above here would cause an earlier reversal higher which would move back towards 1.2037-50 at least and we suspect further towards the 1.2090-1.2116 peaks again. Next resistance is not until 1.2161.
With the losses we can lower the reversal level to around 1.2204 being a Fibonacci retracement and pivot level. If this is broken then look for a return to 1.2315 and above. (December 1st)
Losses seen as expected to just above the 1.1952 support. We do need to take care as this is an implied stalling point but we feel there should be just a little more to the 1.1919 yearâ€™s low at least. Care once again advised â€“ only a clean break would extend the downside to 1.1905 and possibly all the way to the next major support at 1.1853.
The decline has stalled and we feel there may be a small pullback but while this remains below 1.2240 we feel a fuller test of the 1.1919 low can be expected and possibly as far as 1.1853. (November 28th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
We are now looking for a potential reversal around 1.1919-1.1953 being the yearâ€™s low and a 138.2% projection in Wave C.
However, we should also note that a 61.8% projection in Wave v is at 1.1798
Also note the 161.8% projection in Wave C at 1.1853.
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