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Friday December 1, 2006 - 10:57:51 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Dollar fell on concerns about slowdown in the US economy.
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
US consumer spending increased by a slightly better than expected 0.2% in October, but the downward revision to September's figures mean this is still something of a disappointment. While that might appear solid, given the massive decline in energy prices we saw in those last two months a major setback. The sharp jump in initial jobless claims to 357k last week, from 323k, suggests that income growth could slow soon as well. However, the spike is more likely to reflect problems adjusting for the holiday-shortened week last week. Overall, a disappointing set of figures. In particular, we had hoped to see a bigger short-term boost to spending. As it is now, Q4 GDP growth is likely to be between 1.5% and 2.0%. Yesterday, the Dollar slid to a 14-year low against the Sterling, extending its broad slide on concerns about a slowdown in the US economy and the possibility of an interest rate cut. GbpUsd went up to 1.9700 +1.2%. EurUsd jumped to a 20-month high 1.3275 +1% after the National Association of Purchasing Management â€“ Chicago business barometer showed lower activity in November for the first time in 3 Â½ years.
Todays Key Issues:
Eurozone October Unemployment Rate due at 10:00 GMT is expected 7.8% unchanged. CAD November Unemployment Rate due at 12:00 GMT is expected 6.2% unchanged and Net change expected 12k vs 50.5k. Are due at 15:00 GMT; US October Construction Spending expected -0.3% unchanged (MoM), November ISM manufacturing expected 51.8 vs 51.2 and ISM Prices Paid expected 49.8 vs 47. At 18:00 GMT Fedâ€™s Moskow speaks on US Economic Outlook in Wisconsin.
The Risk Today:
Usd remains under pressure. EurUsd has continued it advance higher as momentum conditions are supporting this positive outlook. We continue to target further gains with the focus now on the next key resistance at 1.3480. Support is located at 1.3160. UsdChf remains under pressure and approaching the next key support at 1.1920. Intraday conditions remain bearish and this confirms the outlook for further weakness. Initial resistance is located at 1.2120. GbpUsd continues to extend its gains following the recent break of the former key resistance at 1.9550. The focus is now on a climb towards the psychological 2.00 level with initial support at 1.9465. UsdJpy Recent consolidation is seen as a bear flag continuation pattern that highlights the potential for an extension of the recent decline. The next downside trigger lies at 115.40 where a break would pave the way for a move towards 114.45 (50% retracement of the 108.98 to 119.90 decline). The outlook remains bearish with initial resistance at 116.60.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.3480 K ||2.0100 T ||119.90 T ||1.2346 K |
|1.3320 T ||1.9825 S ||118.60 S ||1.2185 S |
|1.3275 M ||1.9700 M ||116.60 S ||1.2120 M |
|1.3244 ||1.9696 ||116.09 ||1.1985 |
|1.3160 S ||1.9550 K ||115.61 S ||1.1948 T |
|1.2980 K ||1.9465 S ||115.40 P ||1.1920 K |
|1.2941 M ||1.9144 K ||114.45 S ||1.1740 S |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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