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Monday December 4, 2006 - 08:48:04 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Dollar slides after drop in Manufacturing data.
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
Last weekâ€™s news that the euro rose to a 20-month high against the dollar prompted some politicians to urge the ECB to put the brakes on its monetary tightening cycle. But while the euro rise, it leaves overall monetary conditions looking pretty tight. The Dollar slid to its lowest in months against most major currencies on Friday after weak US factory data which reinforced the view the Federal Reserve would cut benchmark interest rages next year. Sterling jumped to a 14-year high and Euro a 20-month high after the Institute for Supply Managementâ€™s survey of National manufacturing in November showed a lowest since April 2003 at 49.5. A reading under indicates a contraction. Fridayâ€™s report added more concerns about a slowing in the US economy following Thursday data which showed Business activity in the Midwest down in November for the first time in 3 Â˝ years. GbpUsd rose to 1.9848 +1% highest since September 1992. EurJpy hit a record high of 154.11 +0.5%. UsdJpy fell to a 3 Â˝ month low at 114.95 -0.6%. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke did not discuss the economy or the outlook for inflation or interest rates on Friday in brief remarks at a conference on monetary policy.
Todays Key Issues:
Only focus will be; Euro-zone October PPI due at 10:00 GMT is expected 0.2% vs -0.5% (MoM) and 4.1% vs 4.6% (YoY).
The Risk Today:
EurUsd maintained the latest weeks strong bull trend, breaking up another resistance on Friday at the 1.3305. A run till 1.3400 is likely to come and bring Euro closer to the key resistance 1.3480. Following this, we could see again 1.3665 (high December 2004). Strong support from Friday is holding 1.3220, but only a break of Wednesday's 1.3130 low would signal a powerful correction against the bull euro trend. UsdChf tested the key support 1.1920. And there's not much below there till 1.1760 (76.4% retracement of the big rally from 1.1286 to 1.3287). Not far off is the April 2005 1.1740 support. Only a move above 1.2120 high from Wednesday would put the bear trend on hold. Other than psychological round numbers like 1.9800, 1.9900 and 2.0000, GbpUsd has little in the way of significant resistance till the 2.0100 (high December 1992). Support formed Friday at the day's 1.9635 low, but only a break of the 1.9435 reaction low from Wednesday would put the bull trend on hold in the short term. UsdJpy is moving out of its recent consolidation to the downside, as the break of the last week's 115.40 low would open the door toward the 114.45 (50% retracement of the 108.98 to 119.90 decline). Next resistance is 114 low from last August. Resistance remains at the 116.60 high point from last week.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.3665 T ||2.0100 T ||119.90 T ||1.2346 K |
|1.3480 K ||1.9900 S ||118.60 S ||1.2185 S |
|1.3400 P ||1.9825 S ||116.60 S ||1.2120 M |
|1.3325 ||1.9777 ||115.60 ||1.1938 |
|1.3220 S ||1.9550 K ||115.40 P ||1.1920 K |
|1.3130 P ||1.9465 S ||114.45 S ||1.1760 S |
|1.2941 M ||1.9435 K ||114.00 S ||1.1740 S |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Tue 12 Dec
09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 GB- ZEW Survey
13:30 US- PPI
Wed 13 Dec
00:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Unemployment
13:30 US- CPI
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Decision
Thu 14 Dec
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
All Day- Global- flash PMIs
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:45 US- Industrial Production
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Tue--10:00 GMT-- DE- ZEW. Second Tier Sentiment Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Tue--13:30 GMT-- US- PPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Wed--09:30 GMT-- GB- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed--13:30 GMT-- US- CPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed--15:30 GMT-- US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Wed--19:00 GMT-- US- Fed Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Thu --00:30 GMT-- AU- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Thu --All day-- global- flash PMIs
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --07:30-- CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --09:30-- GB- Retail Sales
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