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Tuesday December 5, 2006 - 09:53:01 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Dollar edges up on profit taking following last 2 weeks 3% decline.
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The Dollar edged up against the Euro on Monday as investors took profits following recent decline of almost 3% in less than two weeks. EurUsd had raised to a 20-month high and GbpUsd to a 14-year high as weak data lower fears that US interest rates could soon fall even as Euro zone rates were headed higher. Following the upward revision to US 3Q GDP last week we expect to see an improvement in the second estimate of non-farm productivity in the 3Q. Forex market is now looking for an increase of 0.5% (YoY). The US GDP revision will also make a dramatic difference to the revised estimates for 3Q unit labor costs. The ECB is seen lifting rates to 3.5%, and analysts predict another hike in early 2007. Globally, dealers said the overall mood remains Dollar bearish and some are looking for a near-term Euro correction below 1.3100 as opportunities to invite new long EurUsd players. EurUsd was unchanged yesterday at 1.3335. UsdJpy barely moved down 0.1% at 115.38. Yesterday performer was UsdCad down 0.35% at 1.1408. GbpUsd was flat on the day at 1.9807 just over 1.9800 psychological level and 14-year high. Poll of economists predicts the Bank of England will remain on hold at 5% but looks for a hike in early 2007.
Todays Key Issues:
Euro-zone November PMI Services due at 9:00 GMT is expected 56.5 unchanged. Euro-zone Retail Sales due at 10:00 GMT previously -0.6% (MoM) and 1.4% (YoY). CAD Bank of Canada Rate Decision due at 14:00 GMT expected unchanged at 4.25%. US November ISM non-manufacturing due at 15:00 GMT is expected 56 vs 57.1. AUD December RBA cash target due at 22:30 GMT is expected 6.25% unchanged.
The Risk Today:
EurUsd remains constructive and could extend gains over Monday's 1.3356 high to test resistance 1.3400. Beyond there, next target is 1.3480 Key level and the major 1.3665 all time traded high from late-December 2004. Near-term support holds 1.3220 (61.8% retracement of the 1.3132-1.3368 advance), but it would need a break of last Wednesday's 1.3130 low to undermine the positive view. UsdChf is expected lower again towards 1.1760 (76.4% retracement of the major rally from 1.1286 to 1.3287) and then 1.1740, April 2005 low. Maintain a bearish bias below last Wednesday's 1.2120 high. GbpUsd is likely to attack again 1.9850 last Friday's high and expand it for a fresh assault on 2.0100 (top from Sep 1992). Nearby support holds at last Friday's 1.9635 reaction low, it would need a drop below the formerly resistant 1.9550 to end the up-trend. UsdJpy is likely to remain just lower than y last week's 116.60 high. As long as this remains the case, we believe a move below last Friday's 114.98 low will expose 114.45 (50% retracement of the 108.98 to 119.90 decline) heading to 114. UsdCad is consolidating gains from last week's 1.1286 low, but this level should hold to maintain pressure on 1.1495, the high from Nov 21 and hopes for extended gains.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.3665 T ||2.0100 T ||119.90 T ||1.2346 K |
|1.3480 K ||1.9900 S ||118.60 S ||1.2185 S |
|1.3400 P ||1.9825 S ||116.60 S ||1.2120 M |
|1.3315 ||1.9759 ||114.85 ||1.1954 |
|1.3220 S ||1.9635 M ||114.98 M ||1.1920 K |
|1.3130 P ||1.9550 S ||114.45 S ||1.1760 S |
|1.2941 M ||1.9435 K ||114.00 S ||1.1740 S |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.
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