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Wednesday December 6, 2006 - 11:03:36 GMT
Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com

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Key News
· Retail-sales growth accelerated in the euro region for a third month in November. (Bloomberg)
· Key Reports (WSJ):
7:00a.m. MBA Refinancing Index. Previous: -9.6%.

Quotable

“The global economy and financial markets are full of ‘mysterious’ interconnected channels that may help to minimise the consequences of one type of shock but also build up imbalances in other areas. Take, for example, the global commodity boom. Oil-rich countries in the Middle East have enjoyed a surge in income growth from an average of 3.7% a year in the 1990s to 6.5% over the past five years, as export earnings increased from US$251 billion in 2002 to US$593 billion last year and approximately US$780 billion this year. With soaring oil prices, the region’s cumulative current account surplus widened from 5.4% of GDP in 2002 to 22.7% in 2005 and 25.5% this year. Even though oil exporters’ current account surplus — increasing from just 0.1% of global GDP in 1999 to 1.3% this year — is effectively a tax on the rest of the world, the global economy has kept surging ahead. In our view, the recycling of petrodollars that has fuelled global liquidity is a crucial factor curtailing the adverse effects of the commodity shock.”

Serhan Cevik

FX Trading – Say what?

This is from The Wall Street Journal this morning.

“Federal Reserve officials -- unlike bond investors -- think the economy is a lot sounder today than at the end of 2000 and in early 2001, when the Fed abruptly reversed course and began a string of interest-rate cuts [the first of 13 interest rate cuts started in 2000].

“Yet Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's effort to convey the message that today's conditions are different is hampered by the Fed's lack of candor back in 2000.”

When you continue to read the Fed thinks the economy is moving merrily along, the first thought that comes to mind is: What are they smoking?


“Fed officials thus appear content with a forecast of moderate growth over the next few quarters, then a rebound in mid-2007. ‘I don't think that the data we have seen are out of line’ with that forecast, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Michael Moskow said Monday on CNBC, according to the Journal.


Knock, knock! Is anybody home?


Single Family Home Chart

Source: Northern Trust


Notice that the number of homes for sale was bottoming heading into 2001. [Grey area on the chart is an official recession].


Median Price of Homes Char

Source: Northern Trust



Notice that home prices were moving higher heading into 2001.



Yield Curve Chart
Source: WSJ



Our money for now is on the yield curve reality, not the Fed jawboning. That’s because we think most of the people behind the yield curve aren’t on the government payroll—they have real money at stake; they don’t just talk about real money.

--------------------

Reader Comment on yesterday’s issue looking at the yen vs. the Aussie:

“You make a great point and I'm sure you don't mind me saying so, but I think you could have done this more powerfully to your readers. Had you started out with the traditional carry trade and taken it down under, focusing the reader's mind on life outside the U.S., it might have been better said.

"When we talk about the carry-trade, we're usually talking about the 5.25% yielding dollar versus the 0.25% yielding yen. But carry players aren't confined to just that pair, especially when the bulk of their business is done in other corners of the world, such as Australia. Like the Fed, the RBA has been lifting rates in efforts to keep inflation at bay. Unlike the Fed, the RBA has probably not yet finished. That factor works in favor of the 6.25% yielding Aud$............”


Jack Crooks, Black Swan Capital Black Swan Subscription-based Service

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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