Wednesday December 6, 2006 - 14:56:48 GMT
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FOREX: Monthly GVI Forex Survey Analysis
EUR USD 3 months: 1st day close 1.3325(1.2740), av. responses 1.3391(1.2804), Adjusted boundaries 1.29-1.37 (1.23-1.31).
GVI 58%(56%)COMPONENTS 17%51%32%(11%67%22%). DRY INDEX: 57%(59%).
EUR GVI INDEX Roughly unchanged, bullish in absolute terms. Neutrals diminished, which is consistent with the increased volatility.
What is interesting is that we have roughly the same Bullish Index with the spot now almost 600 pips above the previous reading. Remember that the pure bulls are now those seeing EUR above 1.37 and those are about 1/3 of total.
Even in average terms the Index maintains 70 pips above spot, just like the previous time.
What are the reasons? Technical, mostly, i.e. the break of the old range is for itself the main reason for the projected gains. The fact that it happened at year end doesnâ€™t seem particularly perceived.
After a very bad year technical conditions (backdrop) are improving (though arenâ€™t so bright in absolute terms), therefore the optimism is a bit less worrying.
USD JPY 3 months: 1st day close 115.36(117.42), av. responses 113.27(114.86), Adjusted boundaries 111-119(113-121).
GVI: 37%(36%) COMPONENTS: 32%61%7%(31%66%3%) DRY INDEX: 29%(24%).
Bearish USD in relative and absolute terms. Dry bearish. Neutrals a bit diminished.
Similar picture. The main difference here is that are used somewhat different arguments, since technicals are yet a bit disappointing. I would be cautious.
OIL 3 months: 1st day close 62.44(58.36), av. responses 61.34(58.33), Adjusted boundaries 55-69 (51-65).
GVI:49%(52%) COMPONENTS:12%79%9% (8%78%14%). DRY INDEX:35%(47%)
Unchanged. Slightly bearish in relative terms.
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