Wednesday December 6, 2006 - 15:20:48 GMT
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Global-View - www.global-view.com
FOREX: GVI Monthly Forex Survey Results
In the latest monthly sentiment survey of professional forex dealers by global-view.com, the leading forex discussion website, sentiment for the USD against the EUR has deteriorated. The three-month ahead mean forecast for EUR/USD was 1.3391 from 1.2804 a month earlier. The EUR/USD spot price at the mid-point (December 4 close) of when the survey was being conducted was 1.3325.
The GVI-Cumino Euro bull index (Range 0-100; 0 = most bearish, 100 = most bullish, 50 = neutral) was steady in the EUR/USD at 58 from 56 previously. The GVI-Cumino index uses a theoretical neutral option strategy to measure the intensity and direction of individual trader sentiment from price levels at the time when forecasts were made.
The USD/JPY mean dollar forecast turned lower to 113.27 from 114.86 one month ago. The USD/JPY spot rate at the mid-point of when the survey was being conducted was 115.35. The GVI-Cumino dollar bull index remained USD bearish. It was 28 after 30.
Traders expect the price of crude oil (WTI) to close at $61.34 in three-months time from the current spot vs. the previous $58.33 estimate.
In a special question, participants were asked if they thought that the U.S. would intervene in support of the USD against the EUR before the end of 1Q07. 11% said yes while 89% said no.
For complete detailed survey results including history see:
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