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Wednesday December 6, 2006 - 15:50:16 GMT
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Forex and Commodity Market Commentary and Analysis (6 December 2006)

The euro weakened vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.3255 level and was capped around the $1.3340 level. Technically, today’s intraday low was right around the 38.2% retracement of the move from $1.3085 to $1.3360. The common currency lost ground after ADP employment data reported 158,000 jobs were created last month, above expectations. The dollar moved higher on these data because they suggest that Friday’s all-important U.S. non-farm payrolls report for November could be above expectations. In eurozone news, most traders expect the European Central Bank to lift interest rates by +25bps to 3.50% tomorrow. Comments from ECB President Trichet will be closely scrutinized, especially because the markets are now pricing in less than a 50% chance that rates will move beyond the 3.50%. Data released in the eurozone today saw German manufacturing orders decline 1.1% m/m in October while they were up 10.0% y/y. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3325 level.

¥/ CNY

The yen came off vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥115.20 level and was supported around the ¥114.50 level. Traders took the yen higher during the Australasian session when Bank of Japan Policy Board member Nishimura suggested the central bank could raise interest rates even when its views on rates are inconsistent with the market’s views. Coupled with remarks from his Policy Board colleague Mizuno yesterday, Nishimura is the latest policymaker to suggest the BoJ may not wait for a dramatic pick-up in consumer price inflation before lifting borrowing costs. An increase in Japanese interest rates could lead to yen appreciation because some traders would unwind their short yen carry trades, forcing the yen higher as they cover their positions. Data released in Japan today saw the October diffusion index of leading economic indicators rise to 50.0 from a revised 25.0 in September. The Nikkei 225 stock index gained 0.65% to close at ¥16,371.28. Dollar bids are cited around the ¥114.40/ ¥113.70 levels. The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥152.45 level and was capped around the ¥153.10 level. The British pound and Swiss franc weakened vis-à-vis the yen as the crosses tested bids around the ¥225.70 and ¥95.90 levels, respectively. The Chinese yuan weakened vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 7.8234 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 7.8218. Data released in China today saw its November trade surplus print at US$ 23.37 billion, down from October’s level of US$ 23.83 billion. Also, it was reported 2007 retail sales are expected to increase about 13% to CNY 8.6 trillion and the Chinese government established a 2007 GDP growth target of 8%.

The British pound extended recent losses vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.9615 level and was capped around the $1.9740 level. Stops were hit below the $1.9640 level, representing the 38.2% retracement of the move from $1.9305 to $1.9840. Data released in the U.K. today saw October manufacturing output off 0.4% m/m, the largest decline since October 2005. Also, BRC reported November shop prices rose at their fastest rate in more than 2.5 years, up 1.81% y/y. Nationwide released a report today suggesting the Bank of England’s two quarter point interest rate hikes have impacted consumer sentiment sharply and Chancellor of the Exchequer Brown’s Pre-Budget report included an increase in the forecast for 2006 GDP to 2.75%. Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.9575 level. The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the ₤0.6760 level and was supported around the ₤0.6740 level.


The Swiss franc came off marginally vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the CHF 1.1985 level and was supported around the CHF 1.1905 level. Technically, today’s intraday high was about ten pips below the 50% retracement of the move from CHF 1.2115 to CHF 1.1875. November employment data will be released tomorrow. Dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.2025 level. The euro and British pound came off vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the crosses tested bids around the CHF 1.5870 and CHF 2.3485 levels, respectively.


The Australian dollar gained marginal ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the Aussie tested offers around the US$ 0.7890 level and was supported around the $0.7845 level. As expected, Reserve Bank of Australia kept borrowing costs unchanged at 6.25% overnight. Data released in Australia saw GDP expand 0.3% q/q in the September quarter, just below most forecasts, and was up 2.2% y/y. Australian dollar bids are cited around the US$ 0.7755 level.


The Canadian dollar weakened vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the C$ 1.1465 level and was supported around the C$ 1.1395 level. Data released in Canada today saw October building permits surge 6.1% m/m to their second higher level ever. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the C$ 1.1570 level.


The New Zealand dollar came off marginally vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the kiwi tested bids around the US$ 0.6825 level and was capped around the $0.6890 level. Technically, today’s intraday low was right around the 23.6% retracement of the move from US$ 0.6575 to US$ 0.6905. New Zealand dollar bids are cited around the US$ 0.6775.

Gold/ Silver

Gold came off sharply vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the yellow metal tested bids around the US$ 633.95 level and was capped around the $ 643.10 level. Yesterday’s better-than-expected U.S. services industry activity data and a sell-off in Japanese gold futures overnight contributed to the pair’s decline. Silver came off marginally vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar as the pair tested bids around the US$ 13.60 level and was capped around the $13.83 level.

Crude Oil

Crude oil depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as light, sweet NYMEX crude oil futures for January delivery tested bids around the US$ 62.04 level and was capped around the $62.79 level. Traders await the release of weekly U.S. inventories data to assess the health of U.S. energy stockpiles. Traders remain cautious ahead of next week’s OPEC meeting in Nigeria where policymakers may decide to reduce production output further. Forecasts for warmer weather in the U.S. over the next few days also capped the pair.


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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 31 July 2018
AA JP- Bank of Japan
A 06:00 DE- Retail Sales
A 09:00 EZ- flash HICP/GDP
AA 12:30 US- Core PCE Deflator
A 14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence
Wed 1 Aug 2018
A Final Mfg PMIs
AA 12:15 US- ADP Private Payrolls
A 15:00 US- EIA Crude
AA 18:00 US- Federal Reserve Decision
Thu 2 Aug 2018
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 3 Aug 2018
A Final Services PMIs
AA 12:30 US- Employment
A 12:30 US/CA- Trade

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