Friday December 8, 2006 - 04:43:58 GMT
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Daily Analysis for USDJPY
Resistance: 115.40 ... 115.67 ... 115.91 ... 116.16
Support: 115.10 ... 114.74 ... 114.42 ... 113.97
We continue to look for 115.40-60 to cap and for losses to develop to 113.97
We didnâ€™t see the losses expected yesterday and it appears to suggest that we need to see one last attempt higher. This should stall in the 115.40-60 area and from there we look for losses. Thus a more bullish scenario will require a break above 115.60-72 and if seen would trigger probably what will be quite a sharp move higher toward s116.18 at least and possibly as high as 116.47-54.
Continued losses bring price closer to the 113.42-113.97 supports and we favor the higher holding. From here we shall expect a pullback towards the 116.16-30 area. (December 6th)
It was a bit disappointing not to see losses develop yesterday but we now look for one final marginal corrective high between 115.40-60 from where we shall expect a move down to the 114.42 area which could cause a small pullback ahead of extension lower to the 113.97 target where we look for a larger correction. Only below 113.75 extends to 113.20-40 before higher.
We feel the wave structure is a bit clearer and suspect that we shall see a recovery from 113.97. While this remains below 116.30 we still look for ultimate losses to 113.20-40 â€“ possibly below. (December 6th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
We have seen the alternative wave count from yesterday develop with a peak at 115.40. Thus look for losses now in Wave v of Wave (b) of Wave (iii) which should reach the 138.2% projection in Wave (iii) at 113.97 which is also the 66.67% projection in Wave v.
The wave count hasnâ€™t changed but there may be a small breach of 115.40 but we see a 58.6% retracement at 115.56 and a small target of 115.60. Thus this should be the Wave iv to be followed by a decline down to the 113.97 target to complete Wave (iii) lower.
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