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Friday December 8, 2006 - 11:21:18 GMT
Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com

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Crossover?

Key News

• Japan's economy has grown more slowly than predicted. (BBC)
• Homeowners had $10.9 trillion in equity stored up in their properties at the end of the third quarter, an amount that was essentially flat compared with the previous quarter and down from a nearly 3% rate of growth during the same period last year, the Fed said. (WSJ)
• UK annual house price inflation rose to 9.6% in November, according to the latest survey from the Halifax bank. (BlBC)
• Key Reports (WSJ):
8:30a.m. Nov Nonfarm Payrolls. Expected: +110K. Previous: +92K.
8:30a.m. Nov Unemployment Rate. Expected: 4.5%. Previous: 4.4%.
9:40a.m. Nov ECRI Inflation Gauge. Previous: 119.9.
10:00a.m. Prelim U Of Mich Consumer Sentiment Index. Expected: 92.0. Previous: 92.1.

Quotable
“But if thought corrupts language, language can also corrupt thought.

George Owell

FX Trading – Crossover?
We are now led to believe the European Central Bank is set to raise interest rates next year, but at a “slower pace” than we expected before yesterday. We for one weren’t really certain on any ECB rate timetable anyway, so the news didn’t motivate us rush out and sell euro.

This currency game is, and always will be, relative. When it comes to interest rates and the currency decision, it is not just about forecasting rates, but how rates play out against expectations (surprise factor) relative to the movement of rates supporting other currencies. We think most people, including us, expect US rates to decline next year as euro rates are rising—the degree to which this happens is a bit fuzzy, but the degree for now doesn’t seem the important part. The important part is the dollar is in jeopardy of losing its relatively high yield differential, which has provided much support—just how much we will only know with hindsight.

In terms of degree, what would be a surprise, and we think quite conceivable, is if euro-zone rates cross above the Fed fund rates. Growing expectations of this reality would likely propel euro much higher relative to the dollar.

The last time the US economy was headed toward the rocks we got 13 rate cuts from the Fed. Granted, we had the Nadadaq crash, and global deflation concerns forcing Mr. Greenspan to usher in the “emergency” rate. But we have a housing crash potential looming this time; do I hear any guesses on the number of cuts that might produce?

Later today we get a look at US non-farm payrolls for November. A lot seems to be riding on this number. If we get a good number of new jobs, the euro will likely stage a much needed correction, or more, and any belief in the potential for crossover will fade—for awhile at least. A bad number on jobs today and the dollar will likely be pummeled as crossover begins to enter the currency trader lexicon.

Jack Crooks

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude

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