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Monday December 11, 2006 - 11:42:12 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange -

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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• Negative ‘technical signal’ for EUR-USD, but USD sentiment is likely to remain fragile.
• JPY weak after data shows more even keel on spec positioning.
• UK PPI fails to stir inflation fears, but apprehension will remain.

Market Outlook

A fairly dramatic session for EUR-USD on Friday, with the top end of the current range being put to test before the late capitulation. Technically, this was an outside reversal day and could present a challenge for EUR-USD initially this week. However, it is doubtful that the recent period of negative USD sentiment will suddenly be jettisoned and key US data this week as well as the FOMC meeting will be key in determining how things develop. The period of EUR-USD strength seen initially on Friday was inspired by talk of official bids on EUR-USD and this will also be a factor this week (BIS data released at the weekend showed further modest official diversification out of USD deposits in Q2 from Q1). The speed of Friday’s pullback also reflected underlying positioning, with the IMM data as of last Tuesday showing a net long spec position of 98,265 contracts.

Latest IMM positioning data also showed spec net JPY shorts narrowing to 23,537 contracts from 41,958 the previous week and 80,421 the week before that. Any sign of a more even keel on JPY positioning is a negative for the JPY as it leaves it exposed to weak interest rate fundamentals and so it has proved this morning, with the JPY underperforming. 117.00-15 is the next resistance area currently holding USD-JPY and US and Japanese (Tankan) data will be significant this week. EURJPY made a fresh high of 154.36 this morning, although 155.00 should hold for now.

UK PPI and trade data was not that far away from market expectations. However, PPI output is a key indicator for the MPC in terms of pipeline inflation pressure and some nervousness about this number will remain in place until the January data is seen (January being the time when manufacturers conduct their annual review of prices). The last CBI survey showed a big upturn in expectations for output prices over the coming three months and this raised some fears about what is being planned for January. This week’s CBI survey will again be watched for price expectations. There is also other information on the inflation front still to come this week in the form of CPI and average earnings data.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

EU ECB’s Liikanen spks 07.00
CA New house prices (Oct) m/m 08.30 +0.5%
CA Labour productivity (Q3) q/q 08.30 +0.4%
CA BoC’s Dodge spks 12.30
JP Domestic CGPI (Nov) y/y 18.50 +2.7%

Latest data Actual Consensus*
GB Rightmove house prices (Dec) y/y +13.0% +12.4% last
CN CPI (Nov) y/y +1.9% +1.5%
JP Consumer confidence (Nov) 48.9 48.8
FR Ind prod (Oct) m/m -0.1% +0.5%
FR Manu output (Oct) m/m +0.3% +0.8%
TR GDP (Q3) y/y +3.4% +5.1%
SE AMS Unemp rate (Nov, nsa) 3.7% 3.9%
NO CPI (Nov) y/y +2.6% +2.6%
NO CPIX (Nov) y/y +0.8% +0.7%
GB PPI input (Nov) m/m +0.1% -0.1%
GB PPI output (Nov) m/m 0.0% 0.0%
GB PPI output core (Nov) y/y +2.5% +2.5%
GB Global trade balance (Oct) -£6.3bn -£6.6bn
GB Non-EU trade balance (Oct) -£3.9bn -£3.9bn
GB DCLG house prices (Oct) y/y +8.6% +9.4%
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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