Tuesday December 12, 2006 - 05:19:27 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Daily Analysis for USDCHF
Resistance: 1.2030 ... 1.2049 ... 1.2080 ... 1.2100
Support....: 1.1999 ... 1.1968 ... 1.1925 ... 1.1878
We remain bearish with 1.2030-49 capping for a decline to 1.1918-37 before higher
The 1.2116 resistance was not touched yesterday and we saw losses as expected. We still feel this will be the early direction to provide additional losses for the 1.1918-37 area from where we expect a correction higher and this therefore represents a careful buying opportunity. Only an earlier break back above 1.2050 would imply a return to 1.2080 at least and probably a stronger test of the 1.2097-1.2116 area which should hold. Only above sees gains to 1.2134 & 1.2166 at least. Next resistance is at 1.2204.
The next resistance at 1.2116 has been approached and if there is to be any further upside developing we require a break here. Only if seen would we look for gains to 1.2200-05 and 1.2247 at least. (December 11th)
The 1.2095-1.2115 capped nicely yesterday and we remain cautiously bearish for a further small decline at least. There is resistance at 1.2030 and also 1.2049 and while these remain intact look for a loss of 1.1999 to extend the downside to 1.1968 at least where we do have to be a little careful as this could cause a further correction. However, overall we prefer a more direct test of the next support in the 1.1918-37 area which should hold on first test. Breach suggests a move closer to the 1.1878 low.
The rally on Friday alters the wave structure a little but until 1.2116 is broken the bias remains bearish. We suspect a larger sideways correction and therefore target 1.1925 minimum. (December 11th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
The move up to 1.2097 this morning looks more like the 1.1878 low was Wave iii and thus we now expect a 50%-58.6% pullback in Wave iv at 1.2100-14. This will either be Wave iv or more likely we suspect Wave a of a complex Wave iv.
Note a 76.8% retracement around 1.1925 that would hold in a triangle pattern. Alternatively a retest of the 1.1853-78 area is possible within a flat correction.
We now label the 1.2097 high as Wave â€“iv- or Wave â€“a- of a complex correction in Wave â€“iv-. If we are looking at a triangle then we should be targeting the 76.4% pullback around 1.1918-37 from where a correction should be seen at least. Below would open the way for a fuller retest of 1.1878 in Wave â€“a- of Wave â€“v-.
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