User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Tuesday December 12, 2006 - 11:40:05 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange - https://fx.mellon.com/

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• EUR-USD edges higher – FOMC meeting now awaited.
• German ZEW rebounds slightly.
• JPY prospects are not looking good but further weakness may be limited ahead of Friday’s Tankan.
• UK CPI lends support to Feb rate hike expectations.
• US and Canadian trade data also feature today.

Market Outlook

EUR-USD was already trading close to the day’s highs at the European close when Greenspan added to yesterday’s move by noting in a speech that the USD would remain weak in coming years. The current account deficit//reserve diversification arguments behind this statement do not represent anything new and EUR-USD failed to build on the move any further in Asia. It firmed up for a while during the European morning, helped by the strength in cable seen after the release of stronger than expected UK CPI data. There was also a stronger than expected German ZEW survey, but most of the gains had already been seen by that time. However, it failed to move above 1.3270 and some of the gains were taken back. The ZEW survey merely saw a reversal of some of the recent unusual weakness – see chart

Attention is now on the FOMC meeting and whether there is any adjustment to the recent stance taken with regard to future inflation and policy risks (see below for preview). A major change looks unlikely and the market will be left waiting for key US data releases during the remainder of the week – retail sales tomorrow, CPI, NY Fed index, industrial output on Friday. As long as there is no major change in today’s Fed statement, there is a risk that EUR-USD revisits the 1.3130 low seen in Asia yesterday. However, negative USD sentiment is unlikely to be given up completely just yet. Initial support today comes in at 1.3220 – resistance at 1.3270.

USD-JPY is also below yesterday’s highs and the market may be a little wary about pursuing further aggressive JPY weakness with the Tankan still outstanding. Recent evidence that excessive JPY short positioning is being closed is a negative factor for the JPY, but the Tankan needs to be seen. In the unlikely event of a strong Tankan, BoJ rate hike fears (for next week) will be reignited.

GBP was boosted for a time this morning by stronger than expected CPI data, although 0.2% of the uplift in the y/y rate was due to petrol prices. The m/m fall recorded in petrol prices this November fell well short of the large fall recorded at the same time last year – hence the higher y/y rate. The CPI y/y rate of +2.7% was the highest since 1996. Core CPI also rose to +1.6% from +1.5%, with the lower rate (compared to CPI) due to stripping out strength in food and utilities prices. The latter again contributed to the higher CPI y/y rate but this effect should wane next year when sharply lower wholesale natural gas prices are finally passed on to the consumer. The data is not that bad, but it will maintain nervousness at the MPC about the need to err on the side of caution in its approach to dealing with inflation and to this extent it supports the notion of a February rate hike. However, news about the consumer sector will also influence sentiment on this matter in coming weeks.

Day Ahead
Canada – trade data will be watched for any gross indications from exports. Last month, exports fell 2% m/m and it will be interesting to see whether this is a one-off or the prelude to further weakness. Another weak number would put pressure on the CAD. 1.1525-40 is resistance on USD-CAD and this has already been put to the test in Europe this morning (high of 1.1529).

US – the FOMC meet today and while there is a very small chance of a more even-handed policy risk assessment, such tampering could prove premature if not backed up by subsequent data developments. The Fed has typically shied away from changing its view on something until it is absolutely convinced for fear of confusing the market. While most housing numbers remain fairly soft and the ISM is suggesting some early signs of weakness in the manufacturing sector, the consumer and service sectors are holding in well and until there is evidence of a broader economic slowdown the Fed is unlikely to change its message in a major way. They will most probably just acknowledge some of the recent data developments as evidence that tighter policy is starting to take effect and that they will continue to monitor the incoming data.

On the data front, the monthly trade data is due and in the current circumstances of negative USD sentiment, the market will be sensitive to anything unusual. Weekly store sales will also be watched after recent weakness.

Diary
Data/event EDT Consensus*

US Chain store sls (w/e Dec 9) w/w 07.45 -2.6% last
US Trade balance (Oct) 08.30 -$63bn
CA Trade balance (Oct) 08.30 C$3.8bn
US Redbook sls (w/e Dec 9) m/m 08.55 -1.8% last
US Federal budget (Nov) 14.00 -$73bn
US FOMC meeting outcome 14.15 unch
US ABC consumer conf (w/e Dec 10) 17.00 -1 last
AU Consumer sentiment (Dec) 18.30 -9.7% last
JP Current account (Oct, sa) 18.50 ¥1.6trn
JP Ind prod (Oct, final) m/m 23.30 +1.3%

Latest data Actual Consensus*
JP Domestic CGPI (Nov) y/y +2.7% +2.7%
SE CPI (Nov) y/y +1.7% +1.5%
SE CPI UND1X (Nov) y/y +1.3% +1.2%
IT Ind prod (Oct) m/m +0.6% +0.5%
GB CPI (Nov) y/y +2.7% +2.6%
GB CPI core (Nov) y/y +1.6% +1.5%
GB RPIX (Nov) y/y +3.4% +3.3%
GB RPI (Nov) y/y +3.9% +3.8%
DE ZEW expectations (Dec) -19.0 -25.0
EU ZEW expectations (Dec) -3.0 -8.5
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 23 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- All Day Global flash PMIs. First good look at October economic performances.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 01:30 GMT AU- CPI. Top Inflation indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 08:00 GMT DE- IFO Survey. Top German indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 14:00 GMT CA- BOC Decision. No Policy Change Expected.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top Weekly WTI Statistic.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105