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Thursday December 14, 2006 - 10:51:18 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Dollar rallied on strong US retail sales report.
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
Dollar rallies across the board supported by surprising healthy US Consumer Spending. After starting European session on a firm tone, the Dollar rallied further on a much better than expected November Retail Sales report. This move up can be describe as investors are taking more notice of strength in the consumer sector than weak US housing and manufacturing data, but analysts commented this shift may not live very long. US Retail Sales suggests that consumers are finally spending the cash freed up by the decline in gasoline prices. Total sales rose by 1.0%, following a revised 0.1% fall the previous month, well above the consensus for a 0.2% gain. Sales excluding autos rose by 1.1% and sales excluding both autos & gas rose by 0.9%. The detail shows that a surge in spending on electronics and building materials drove this increase. Overall this is still a fairly strong report. Looking ahead though the slowdown in the housing market is likely to have a much bigger negative effect in 2007. Investors may now wait consumer and manufacturing data to be released Friday which will provide additional signs of the strength of the US economy. EurUsd was down 0.5% at 1.3217. GbpUsd was little changed down -0.2% at 1.9675. UsdJpy made a strong advance by 0.7% at 117.42 breaking up 117.20 trendline resistance.
Todays Key Issues:
Swiss National Bank 3-month Libor Rate due at 8:30 GMT is expected 2% vs 1.75%. GBP November Retail Sales due at 9:30 GMT is expected 0% vs 0.9% (MoM) and 3% vs 3.9% (YoY). CAD October manufacturing Shipments due at 13:30 GMT is expected -0.6% vs -3.3%. US November Import Price Index due at 13:30 GMT is expected 0% vs -2% (MoM). Are due at 23:50 GMT; JPN 4Q Tankan Large All Industry Capex expected 12.1% vs 11.5% and JPN October Tertiary Industry Index expected 1.3% vs -1.3% (MoM).
The Risk Today:
EurUsd is consolidating in 1.3200 â€“ 1.3300 area after recent gains and latest definition of its support at 1.3130. The focus remains on 1.3312 (76.4% retracement of the 1.3370 to 1.3130 decline). A break below 1.3130 is required to cancel the actual positive outlook. UsdChf maintains a bearish tone, having failed to break over the 1.2120 resistance. More weakness would come below 1.1880 and open the door for further downside to 1.1760 (76.4% retracement of the 1.1286 to 1.3287 advance). Initial resistance this morning lies at 1.2100 Monday high. GbpUsd is holding a strong tone above 1.9467 (38.2% retracement of the 1.8835 to 1.9850 advance). With momentum conditions improving, we could see a break of 1.9730, yesterday high to re-focus attention on the 1.9850 trend high. UsdJpy maintains a positive tone for now having cleared the 117.33 trendline resistance and former 23.6% retracement of 109.02 to 119.90 advance. It is now exposing 117.90 minor resistance. Note that strong resistance holds 118.60 level where a break is required to reopen the way to 119.90 â€“ 120 area trendline high and psychological.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.3480 K ||1.9900 S ||119.90 T ||1.2346 K |
|1.3400 P ||1.9850 P ||118.60 S ||1.2120 S |
|1.3370 S ||1.9730 M ||117.90 M ||1.2060 M |
|1.3221 ||1.9670 ||117.47 ||1.2054 |
|1.3130 P ||1.9550 S ||116.60 M ||1.1920 P |
|1.3085 S ||1.9435 K ||114.00 S ||1.1880 T |
|1.2941 M ||1.9340 S ||113.45 T ||1.1760 S |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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