Monday December 18, 2006 - 03:21:26 GMT
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Daily Analysis for EURJPY
Resistance: 154.75 ... 155.02 ... 155.34 ... 155.57
Support: 154.30 ... 154.08 ... 153.95 ... 153.78
We prefer a bearish stance but require loss of 154.74-84 to confirm
We saw the preferred losses on Friday but these stalled at the 154.74-84 area and thus we cannot rule out further gains. If these are to happen then we require a break back above 154.70-80 and if see would assist higher to 155.35. Care advised there â€“ breach is required to keep the upward momentum intact for a retest and breach of the 155.57 high. Next resistance is at 155.72 and 156.17.
The 155.45 upper target has been met and thus we would prefer to see a stronger move lower. However, any move above 155.45 would likely extend the upside towards 156.01 and possibly 156.45-80. (December 14th)
Losses were seen on Friday but not below the critical support at 154.74-84. Thus to regain a more bearish stance we require the 154.70-80 area to remain intact and cause losses back below 154.30 to take price lower to 153.95 and 153.78 once again which could stall on first test again. Breach would allow the down move to extend towards 153.05 and max 152.50-60.
With 155.45 holding we must begin to consider the possibility of losses but given the strength of the rally it would be better to see confirmation. Below 154.65 would assist back to 154.00â€“ maybe 153.20. (December 14th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
The upside has reached the daily 155.45 target and we feel it safer to observe the next reaction. If this is a high then we would have to expect a decline back toe the Wave (b) low at 150.32.
Any break above 155.45 would extend to Wave (c) extension at 156.014 and 156.79.
With a strong bearish divergence and a decline from 155.57 the downside looks inviting but it may be better to wait for a break of yesterdayâ€™s low to confirm losses to 153.75-154.07.
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