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Friday August 6, 2004 - 11:36:01 GMT
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US OPEN MARKET POINTS 08-06-04

Why Payrolls May not Matter

Is Putin turning into Pinochet? The Yukos saga is quickly becoming a tragicomedy as ever changing government decrees threaten to shut down Russia’s number one oil producer whose daily output is greater than that of Libya. Troika Dialog, the Russian research house, writes, ”The decision to start collection at the very core of Yukos' production reveals the government's true motives; unless this is a bluff, it is after Yukos' assets, rather than collection of a debt. There will, we think, come a point after which there will simply be no incentive for the Kremlin to deal. Rather alarmingly, this point may have already been reached." If the Russian government succeeds in derailing Yukos and takes its output offline, the end result will affect every major market in the world threatening US economic expansion and greatly damaging the USD bull case. Oil, which yesterday closed at a 21 year high of 44.44, hit 44.73 in overnight trading on Nymex as a fire in BP refinery in Texas- the third largest in the nation- further panicked the market. The price of oil now stands within a hair breath of the 45 handle and ever closer to the psychologically frightening $50/bbl level.

If oil continues its relentless rise, the NFP number even if it surprises to the upside, may not be much of a boon for dollar bulls. With wages stagnant, tax refunds spent and home equity lines tapped out, US consumers have no choice but to curtail discretionary spending to pay their gas bills. Yesterdays data showing a second straight month of slowdown in retail spending (3.1% vs. 5.5% average in five months prior) may be the first evidence of this depressing dynamic. If this trend persists it will have negative consequences not only on consumer demand but on corporate hiring as higher oil will raise costs and hurt company profits.

The doomsday scenario is by no means a foregone conclusion. The Putin government faced with worldwide outrage may yet relent and allow Yukos to continue operating. OPEC may indeed bring 1M additional barrels onto the market. And finally as the Gartman letter points out yesterday, US total crude inventories are now at 80M barrels above their 5 year average. Should the geo-political issues cool off, the risk premium in oil will collapse and prices may fall below $40/bbl. If NFP prints materially better than the consensus 240K and oil recedes from its Himalayan highs, the dollar bulls just may have something to cheer about as 1.1900 EUR and 1.8000 GBP could be well in sight.

Key Overnight Developments

- EUR Industrial Production falls –1.9% mirroring last nights decline in Factory Orders as foreign demand dries up
- CAD Employment increases only 8.7K vs. consensus 30K as full time jobs decline by 38.8K

FX Spot Overnight

- EUR typical pre NFP range of 20 pips trading 2060-2080
- JPY slowly trades off the highs set in Asian session at 111.90 to 111.50
- GBP marking time at 8240 ahead of payrolls
- CHF dollar finds strength at 2730 and trades up all the way to 2760

Upcoming Events

12:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD Non-Farm Payrolls (July) Expected at 240K, Previous 112K
12:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD Unemployment Rate (July) Expected at 5.6%, Previous 5.6%
18:00GMT – (2:00 PM EST) USD Consumer Credit (July) Expected at $4.0Bn, Previous $8.2Bn

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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