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Friday August 6, 2004 - 12:38:08 GMT
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Daily Forex Commentary by Global Forex Trading

Daily Commentary By Cornelius Luca, forex analyst, Global Forex Trading
(source: http://www.gftforex.com/resources/daily.asp?date=862004)

The dollar remained basically in suspended animation on Thursday, even though officially it edged lower versus the European currencies, but climbed further against the yen. It was all position unwinding ahead of the release of the US employment report, which will put the markets on fire. The market is braced for a weak non-farm payrolls, thus a sliding dollar; be careful of an unexpected surprise and keep on eye on the plunging US equities and on the surging oil price. The US employment report can be powerful enough as to dictate the next Fed move.

Euro/dollar

The euro/dollar edged higher on Thursday, as expected, and this suggests that Wednesday’s seven-week low will remain a significant low. However, react to Friday’s US data.

Good resistance is still in place at 1.2100 and a further rally would target the area between 1.2189 and 1.2207. An upmove to the 1.2270 is unlikely.

Below 1.1990 pivotal support remains at 1.1968 and at 1.1950 and a break lower would target the distant 1.1865 level.

Oscillators remain mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen experienced further strength in Thursday and early Friday trading, when it climbed as high as 111.88.

The key level to follow today remains the 111.60 50-point pivot, which targets 112.10 and 111.10.

A break above the 112.10 level would signal a rally to 112.46. Distant resistance remains at 112.90 from the 50-point pivot that targets 113.40 and 112.40.

Below 111.20 dollar/yen has support at 110.75. A break lower would target 110.38, and then at 110.00. Key support then remains at 109.15.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar showed little reaction on Thursday to news that the Bank of England hiked rates by 25 basis points to 4.75 percent, and remained within recent ranges. The pair pierced the top of its wider declining channel at 1.8252 (and now at 1.8213) but made little progress.

Above 1.8300, the sterling/dollar still has pivotal resistance at 1.8335. Further resistance remains at 1.8392 and 1.8445. A powerful break higher would target 1.8480.

The pair has initial support at 1.8177 and a break lower would signal another test of 1.8150. A drop to the pivotal 1.8083 low remains unexpected. A further decline to the pivotal support at 1.8010 should not be seen.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss franc edged lower on Thursday but remained range bound. Well, this should change today after the release of the US jobless report.

Above 1.2800, the pair still has initial resistance at 1.2856 and good resistances at 1.2916 and then at 1.2957 from a Fibonacci retracement level. A break higher would signal an aggressive rally to 1.3085.

Dollar/Swiss franc still has support at 1.2700 and a break lower would challenge the nearby, but tough, 1.2685 area. A slide to 1.2600 remains unlikely.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the author are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.




 

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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