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Tuesday December 19, 2006 - 10:06:08 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Dollar has been recovering from extremely oversold conditions.
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The Dollar slipped against the Euro and was steady against the Yen on Monday, with dealers squaring their books in decreasing volume before the Bank of Japan policy meeting early today. Globally in the latest days, the Dollar was recovering from â€śextremely oversold conditionsâ€ť. In addition, investors are in the process of closing their books on 2006. Unless lower volume coming, today Bank of Japan comments and few US economic data this week would generate some volatility in Forex Market. The BoJ left rates at 0.25% as expected at the end of a policy meeting and market players are already paying attention at BoJ Governor T. Fukui post-meeting comment to see if he will signal that interest rates could rise as soon as next month. Any suggestion from Fukui of a rate rise next month to 0.5% would help start a recovery in the low-yielding Yen. UsdJpy slipped only -0.1% at 118.07 pulling back from one-month high 118.33 posted last Friday. EurJpy was little change yesterday at 154.70 +0.12% staying near high 155.60 made last Thursday. EurUsd was also little changed at 1.3103 +0.17% rebounding from intraday low 1.3053. GbpUsd fell -0.2% to 1.9480 as investors continued to take profit on the Sterling recent appreciation. GbpUsd was 14-year high 1.9810 earlier this month. EurChf hit a fresh 6 1/2 â€“ year high shooting at high 1.6016, a move attributed mostly to technical factors.
Todays Key Issues:
Bank of Japan keeps rates on hold at 0.25%. Are due at 9:00 GMT; Euro December German IFO â€“ Business Climate expected 106.8 unchanged, German IFO â€“ Current Assessment expected 114.10 vs 113.9, German IFO â€“ Expectations expected 100 vs 100.1. Are due at 12:00 GMT; CAD Bank of Canada November CPI Core expected 0.2% vs 0.1% (MoM) and 2.1% vs 2.3% (YoY), CAD November CPI expected 0.3% vs -0.2% (MoM) and 1.5% vs 0.9% (YoY). Are due at 13:30 GMT; US November PPI expected 0.6% vs -1.6% (MoM) and -0.7% vs -1.6% (YoY), US November PPI ex Food & Energy expected 0.2% vs -0.9% (MoM) and 1.1% vs 0.6% (YoY), US November Housing Starts 1525k vs 1486k and US Building Permits 1535k vs 1553k. NZD 3Q Current Account Balance due at 21:45 GMT is expected -5.095B vs -3.084B.
The Risk Today:
EurUsd is still under pressure trading close to the 38.2% retracement at 1.3030. A break of this level would open 1.2980 which marks the former key breakout point and is also seen as key support. On the upside, clearing 1.3130 pivot, the next intraday resistance lies at 1.3190. On a medium-term view, the underlying bull trend remains intact while 1.2980 holds. UsdChf is holding recent gains with focus 1.2326 (50% retracement of 1.2771-1.1879 decline). Medium support is at 1.2118 recent low. GbpUsd is one step from further downside towards next support at 1.9340 (50% retracement of the 1.8835-1.9849 advance). At this point, a break above the Dec 13 high of 1.9730 is needed to mark an end to the recent decline. UsdJpy remains bullish but must now clear the strong resistance at 118.60 (76.4% retracement of the 119.90 to 114.45 decline). A break of this resistance would be seen as an important bullish development. Initial support is holding the door closed at 117.44.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.3400 P ||1.9850 P ||119.90 T ||1.2346 K |
|1.3370 S ||1.9730 M ||118.60 S ||1.2326 S |
|1.3130 P ||1.9550 S ||117.90 M ||1.2220 S |
|1.3110 ||1.9512 ||118.15 ||1.2211 |
|1.3085 S ||1.9480 M ||117.44 M ||1.2118 M |
|1.3030 S ||1.9435 M ||116.60 M ||1.1920 P |
|1.2980 K ||1.9340 S ||114.00 S ||1.1880 T |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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