User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Wednesday December 20, 2006 - 11:48:38 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• EUR-USD price action suggests correction is over for now – upside testing should follow.
• US mortgage applications could be significant for the USD today.
• JPY vulnerability shows itself again.
• NZD facing up to test of 0.70 after lower than expected current account deficit.
• EUR-SEK downside would open up below 9.00.
• NZ GDP, Japanese trade/activity data and BoE’s King speech feature tonight.

Market Outlook

A decent stabilisation in EUR-USD yesterday, suggesting that the correction is over for now. Upside should now be tested although the Dec 12 high of 1.3290 needs to break to expose the recent high at 1.3370. Back below 1.3185 would take the edge off the recent move. Below 1.3120 would suggest a renewed attack on the recent low at 1.3053.

Yesterday’s stronger than expected German IFO has bolstered the EUR’s credentials and Trichet repeat the reasonably hawkish message of the recent ECB meeting in his appearance this morning in front of the EU Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee. The market is also likely to look favourably on what Friday’s US core PCE price index should bring. Yesterday’s US core PPI data should be ignored as the large swings in the data over the past four months are purely due to gross volatility in motor vehicle prices. One potential USD positive is today’s data on mortgage applications, which have been improving significantly in recent weeks. It seems unlikely that the recent pace of improvement will be maintained for another week, but if it is it would add weight to the notion of some stabilisation in the housing market, the latter being significant for sentiment about domestic demand in 2007.

While the USD has been losing ground against most currencies over the past 24 hours, this has not happened against the JPY, reflecting the latter’s renewed vulnerability after yesterday’s BoJ
outcome, which offered no real threat of a rate hike in January. The move in EUR-JPY above the recent high at 155.57 was another blow for the JPY. Further advances may be seen in the short-term and key on USD-JPY is the 118.60 level.

The NZD rallied following a lower than expected current account deficit for Q3. This number was always going to be a test for the NZD, as it was a potential threat to the positive cyclical developments seen recently. With this potential pitfall having been overcome there is now some upside risk on the NZD. However, it is difficult to buy it here (0.6975 currently), as it is not clear whether it will manage to scale key resistance at 0.70 in the near-term. Also watch out for any comments from NZ officials who may be fearful about the implications if 0.70 gives way. The upside risk for the NZD also comes from its role as a high yielding opposite to the JPY. NZD-JPY has roared to fresh nine-year highs over the past 24 hours. NZ Q3 GDP is due tonight.

Also keep an eye on EUR-SEK. It has been consolidating in recent weeks after the break below 9.12 and the ability to sustain this move has been encouraging. A fresh downside test is now happening and a break and close below 9.00 would open up some downside going into year-end. As well as the favourable cyclical backdrop for the SEK it is also underpinned by a heavy privatisation schedule, where foreign investors look like being actively welcomed.

UK mortgage lending and money data remained fairly strong and there was a very large uplift in the balance of retailers (+25%) reporting higher y/y sales volumes in December according to the CBI survey. However, the expectations balance for January was only +4. The strength of the December number is line with anecdotal evidence in recent weeks about a pick-up in retail spending after a fairly miserable November, but it also perhaps shows how volatile the data is around this time of the year. What will happen in January for example? The data is certainly encouraging in relation to how things were looking a few weeks back, but the market will most likely reserve judgement on the overall state of consumer spending until the New Year. The December MPC minutes showed slightly differing views on the risks to growth and inflation going forward, although after having hiked rates in November the MPC was essentially in wait and see mode. Pay settlements were identified as key in the months ahead.

Day Ahead
US – a feature of recent weeks in the US has been the recovery seen in mortgage applications and this has been seen as a possible sign of better times ahead for the housing market. Latest data will be examined to see whether the recovery has extended any further.

Japan – trade data (due this evening) will show what is happening to exports, which have flattened out a little over the past couple of months. Exports have been one of the few strong points in the data during 2006 and any sign of weakness would be a further negative development for Japanese economic prospects as well as BoJ policy expectations. The all-industry activity index is also out and a sharp rebound is likely in line with that seen in the tertiary index (already released).

Data/event EDT Consensus*

US Mortgage apps – purchases w/w 07.00 +8.7% last
CA Wholesales sales (Oct) m/m 08.30 0.0%
NZ GDP (Q3) q/q 16.45 +0.5%
JP Trade balance (Nov, sa) 18.50 ¥658bn
JP All-industry index (Nov) m/m 18.50 +1.6%
GB BoE governor King speaks in Aus 21.15

Latest data Actual Consensus*
NZ Current account (Q3) -NZ$4.6bn -NZ$5.1bn
US ABC consumer conf (w/e Dec 17) +1 +1 last
GB MPC minutes (Dec 6-7 meeting) 9-0 9-0
GB M4 lending (Nov) y/y +14.4% +13.4%
GB M4 (Nov) y/y +13.1% +13.8%
GB BBA mortgage lending (Nov) +£6.5bn +£5.6bn
GB PSNCR (Nov) +£7.1bn +£8.7bn
ZA CPI (Nov) y/y +5.4% +5.8%
ZA CPIX (Nov) y/y +5.0% +5.3%
GB CBI retail trades survey (Dec) +25 -9 last
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 23 July 2018
A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
Tue 24 July 2018
AFlash PMIs
Wed 25 July 2018
A 08:00 DE- IFO Survey
A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 July 2018
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 12:30 US- Durable Goods
Fri 27 July 2018
AA 12:30 US- GDP
A 14:00 US- Final University of Michigan

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105