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Wednesday December 20, 2006 - 14:16:04 GMT
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Daily Forex Market Commentary - 12/20/2006

GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary for December 20, 2006
Forex Market Commentary by Cornelius Luca, Currencies Analyst, GFT
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The dollar fell sharply versus the European currencies on Tuesday, but marked time against the yen, as the yen crosses surged. The European currencies are at critical points and their risk is on the upside.

Euro/dollar
One day after hitting a 25-day low of 1.3051, the euro/dollar rallied to recover half of the losses made between December 8 and 18. The rally was helped by a strong Ifo report. A significant peak should be in place, but the oversold pair could make a further rally today.

Above the strong 1.3250 level, euro/dollar has resistance at 1.3290. There is a pivotal high at 1.3367.

Initial support is at 1.3175. Only a break of the support at 1.3135 on a closing basis would signal that Tuesday’s rally was a fluke. Euro/dollar would then have support at 1.3050.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with bullish bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed with bullish bias
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen encountered further choppy trading and remained stuck in an inside range. The immediate outlook is mixed.

Below 117.75, there is support at 117.10. A break above this strong level would test the 50-point pivot at 116.85, which targets 116.35 and 117.35.

The pair has resistance at 118.75, which is the target of the 118.25 pivot. Next level is now the 50-point pivot at 119.65, which targets 116.15 and 120.15.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar rallied sharply on Tuesday and erased 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the downmove between December 4 and 18. This means the pair should now try to pad its gains today.

Initial resistance is at 1.9755. Above 1.98000, the pair has resistance from a pivotal high at 1.9846l.

Below 1.9640, the pound has support at 1.9590. Strong support follows at 1.9490.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with bullish bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed with bullish bias
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc reversed all of the gains made on Friday and should attempt to plow further down today.

Immediate support is at 1.2070. That is followed by 1.2020 and 1.1985.

Above the Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2165, the pair has resistance at 1.2210 and 1.2265.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with bearish bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed with bearish bias
LONG-TERM: Mixed

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the author are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.

 

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

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co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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