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Thursday December 21, 2006 - 11:06:57 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Dollar edged up in thin volumes looking for next US economic data.
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The Dollar edged up in light trading volume on Wednesday anticipating a possible rebound this week end when US economic data are released. Trading was choppy driven by automatic orders to buy USD against other currencies. But dealers expect some liquidity to return in the market today when the final estimate of US 3Q GDP growth will be released as well as a report on Mid-Atlantic business activity. As we approaching the end of the year, the liquidity in Forex market is going much lighter and leave place to sharp swings usually driven by less orders and less capital used by traders. EurUsd closed slightly unchanged at 1.3185 -0.15% after an 80pips range session. EurJpy remains up 0.1% at 156.03 after hitting a record high overnight at 156.40. The Yen is still under pressure against the Euro and remains weak against the Dollar after the Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged at 0.25% on Tuesday. UsdJpy made a light advance of 0.3% to 118.35. UsdCad decline under 1.1500, hitting low 1.1431, was due of activation of 1.1500 traders stop loss; while a rise in crude oil prices to a 3-month peak above $64 also lent support to the commodity-sensitive currency.
Todays Key Issues:
Are due at 13:30 GMT; CAD October Gross Domestic Product expected 0.1% vs -0.3% (MoM), CAD October Retail Sales expected -0.5% vs -1.2% (MoM), US 3Q GDP annualized expected 2.2% unchanged, US 3Q GDP Price Index expected 1.8% unchanged, US 3Q Personal Consumption expected 2.8% vs 2.9%, US 3Q Core PCE expected 2.2% unchanged, US (Dec 16) Initial Jobless Claims expected 315k vs 304k. US November Leading Indicators due at 15:00 GMT is expected 0% vs 0.2%. US December Philadelphia Fed Survey due at 17:00 GMT is expected 4% vs 5.1%.
The Risk Today:
EurUsd has made yesterday high 1.3246 and this marks the next upside trigger for a resumption of gains that would open the way to 1.3293 and 1.3400. Maintain a bullish tone above support at 1.3050. UsdChf outlook remains bearish while 1.2220 remains intact. A break of 1.2075 (50% retracement of the 1.1879-1.2271 rally) would confirm this tendency. GbpUsd recent decline rebound on 1.9435 key support as the general outlook in Cable having improved once again. Minor support is located at 1.9620. A break of minor resistance at 1.9730 would pave the way for a test of 1.9850. UsdJpy remains firm for now and only a break of 117.44 low would offset upward pressure and shift focus away from the key 118.60 important resistance (76.4% retracement of the 119.90-114.43 decline). UsdCad sharp sell-off yesterday resulted in a break of key support at 1.1500. This signals ended recent recovery and paves the way for a decline towards 1.1375 trendline support. The 1.1340 (38.2% retracement of 1.0929 to 1.1591 rally) also marks a near-term objective.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.3400 P ||1.9900 S ||120.00 K ||1.2346 K |
|1.3370 S ||1.9850 P ||119.90 T ||1.2326 S |
|1.3246 M ||1.9730 M ||118.60 S ||1.2220 S |
|1.3200 ||1.9690 ||118.30 ||1.2150 |
|1.3130 P ||1.9480 M ||117.44 S ||1.2075 S |
|1.3050 S ||1.9435 M ||116.60 M ||1.1920 P |
|1.2980 K ||1.9340 S ||114.00 S ||1.1880 T |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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