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Friday December 22, 2006 - 11:27:58 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange - https://fx.mellon.com/

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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - European Edition

Key Points
• BoJ minutes do little to reverse waning sentiment about short-term rate hikes.
• JPY remains on a very fragile footing.
• Modest EUR-USD upside favoured today.
• US core PCE prices, durable orders and Michigan sentiment feature.
• The next FX Daily will be published on January 2 – please accept our best wishes for the season and good luck in the New Year.

Market Outlook

The JPY has softened a little during the Asian session, although it has yet to fully reverse the correction seen yesterday morning. As this is the last day before the holiday season, there is an outside chance of some corrective pressure re-emerging today, although overall JPY prospects continue to look pretty grim.
The BoJ released the minutes of their late October and mid- November meetings this morning and there were both hawkish and dovish observations seen (the need to prevent excessive capex but that consumer spending had been weak because of subdued wage growth). A poignant remark from one member at the November meeting was that “if it was confirmed with greater certainty at a future meeting that developments in economic activity and prices were following the Bank's projection presented in the October Outlook Report, the Bank should not hesitate to consider a policy change.”

It seems clear that such certainty does not currently exist. After this week’s policy meeting, BoJ governor Fukui said that consumer spending and CPI had been a little weak since the BoJ’s October outlook. BoJ confidence in pursuing rate hikes has waned and will only be restored if there is a decent pick-up in consumer spending or CPI, quite possibly both. There is clearly a danger that the market will continue to reassess BoJ policy expectations over the coming month and this could mean more weakness for the JPY.

EUR-USD has been well underpinned through the night, with yesterday’s soft Philly Fed survey offering support. More US data is due today and there is a risk of a weaker than expected core PCE prices number (see below). Upside remains tentatively favoured on EUR-USD in the very short-term, with 1.3290 the main level to look at. Support is at 1.3120-35. Today’s data releases include French consumption & business confidence, Eurozone current account and German CPI although market impact is unlikely to be large.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 07.10 GMT Friday December 22 2006
EUR-SEK yesterday made a more convincing break below 9.00 and there is a fair chance of this being extended in the New Year. 8.92 is the first target and key support is at 8.88. The NZD has also moved back up close to 0.70 and an upside break is looking increasingly likely. With the JPY under pressure the high-yielding NZD is an obvious beneficiary.

Day Ahead
US – core PCE prices, durable orders and Michigan sentiment feature and the main focus will probably be on core PCE prices to see whether it reflects the softer reading in last week’s core CPI number. There is a good chance that it will as the latest number for core CPI excluding shelter (often a better indication of the core PCE prices number) was -0.2% m/m. Core durable orders numbers have been showing some signs of weakness over the last few months (albeit after a strong Q2) and the market will be interested to see whether this has gathered pace. The early December reading on Michigan sentiment (90.2) was down slightly from the previous month (92.1), although this is still fairly high compared to the levels seen in the first half of the year.

Diary
Data/event EDT Consensus*

DE CPI (Dec, prel) m/m today +1.0%
FR GDP (Q3, final) q/q 07.40 0.0%
FR Own company ind outlook (Dec) 07.45 15
FR Business climate indicator (Dec) 07.45 107
FR H’hold consumption (Nov) m/m 07.50 +0.3%
IT Business confidence (Dec) 08.30 96.5
EU Current account (Oct) 09.00 €1.0bn
EU Balance of payments (Oct) 09.00
GB Services index (Oct) 3m/3m 09.30 +0.9%
EU Manu orders (Oct) m/m 10.00 +0.5%
US Personal income (Nov) m/m 13.30 +0.4%
US PCE (Nov) m/m 13.30 +0.6%
US Core PCE price index (Nov) m/m 13.30 +0.1%
US Core PCE price index (Nov) y/y 13.30 +2.3%
US Durable orders (Nov) m/m 13.30 +1.3%
US Durables ex-transport (Nov) m/m 13.30 +1.0%
US Michigan sentiment (Dec, fin) 15.00 90.2

Latest data Actual Consensus*
US Philly Fed index (Dec) -4.3 +3.8
DE Import prices (Nov) y/y +2.8% +3.0%
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005

 

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



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co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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