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Wednesday December 27, 2006 - 10:15:52 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Dollar hit two-month high against Yen in thin holiday volume.
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
UsdJpy climbed to a 2-month high on Tuesday on weak Japanese inflation and spending data. Dollar gained also against most other currencies in holiday thin trading. Many European financial markets, as well as Australia, New Zealand and Canada were closed for Boxing Day holiday. The Yen was undermined by yesterday data showing Japanâ€™s core Consumer Price Index rising by 0.2% in November (YoY), in line with market expectations. CPI is showing pressure from energy prices rather than changes in domestic prices. These latest Japanese economic reports kept investors thinking the BOJ may not raise rates before the next policy meeting on January 17-18. UsdJpy rose to 119.23 highest since late October and ended yesterday gains at 119.13 +0.2%. Another mover was GbpUsd which traded at 1.9516, before closing at 1.9555 -0.2%, as investors booked profit on recent advance. EurUsd was down --0.2% at 1.3109 and UsdChf was up 0.2% at 1.2227. We have seen a lot of data last week and none of those reports made analysts think the Fed may change its policy. For now, the Fed would just hold rates steady.
Todays Key Issues:
Very light day with: US 22nd December MBA Mortgage Applications due at 12:00 GMT, previous was -10.2%. US 24th December Redbook due at 13:55 GMT, previous was -1.6%. JPY November Industrial Production due at 23:50 GMT is expected 1.1% vs 1.6% (MoM) and 5.2% vs 7.4% (YoY).
The Risk Today:
EurUsd remains constructive above 1.3050 (low from Dec 18). The pre-Christmas slide failed to accelerate beyond 1.3098 (76.4% retracement of the 1.3052 to 1.3246 advance) and the recovery from Tuesday's 1.3089 low now targets 1.3186 (61.8% retracement of the 1.3426 to 1.3089 decline) en route to 1.3246 minor resistance. UsdChf rebounded from 1.2109, the low from Dec 20; but as long as 1.2270 (high Dec 18) remains intact, we continue to favor the downside and expect a break of 1.2109 will trigger extended weakness towards 1.2030 (61.8% retracement of the 1.1879-1.2271 rally). GbpUsd continues on a positive tone above 1.9435 and maintains a bullish trend; looking for a move through 1.9730 to unlock 1.9850 early December high. UsdJpy has backed off from Tuesday's 119.24 high; but only a break down 117.44 would be necessary to cancel the immediate up-trend and shift it away from psychological 120 level.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.3400 P ||1.9900 S ||120.00 K ||1.2346 K |
|1.3370 S ||1.9850 P ||119.90 T ||1.2326 S |
|1.3246 M ||1.9730 M ||119.24 M ||1.2220 S |
|1.3153 ||1.9595 ||118.72 ||1.2186 |
|1.3130 P ||1.9480 M ||118.60 S ||1.2075 S |
|1.3050 S ||1.9435 M ||117.44 S ||1.1920 P |
|1.2980 K ||1.9340 S ||116.60 M ||1.1880 T |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Wed 18 Oct /ul>
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
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John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.
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