Sunday August 8, 2004 - 13:12:18 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss FrancPrice 1.2500
Resistance: 1.2530 ... 1.2555 ... 1.2590 ... 1.2630
Support....: 1.2490 ... 1.2455 ... 1.2420 ... 1.2400
Lower to 1.2450-60 before higher
The break below 1.2675-85 has put the medium term bullish scenario on hold. Although initial trading today should 1.2555 hold and see price decline to the ideal target around 1.2450-60. We consider this a good level to buy with stops below 1.2420. From this lower level or a direct break above 1.2560 we look for a drift higher. However, on the day we see resistance at 1.2590 which may be hard to break on first test. Further resistance is at 1.2630 and then 1.2675-85.
The breach of the key 1.2675-85 support triggered strong losses though we feel this is close to finding a trough for this decline. Any early pullback to 1.2530-55 should provide a good selling opportunity for a move down to 1.2450-60. However, this should be the limit on the day. Thus, only a break below 1.2450 would imply follow-through to 1.2400-20 which we would not expect to break.
Elliott Wave Comments:
August 9th 2004
We have had to adjust the wave count slightly and the best fit we could come upw ith is shown below. Within this Wave [iii] is around 161.8% of Wave [i] although Wave [v] is quite stunted. A 61.8% retracement of Wave A is at 1.2450 and Wave (c) is equal to 261.8% of Wave (a) at 1.2460. Thus we feel this area should complete the first move. Assuming this is right we have a three wave decline and will either imply a double zig zag or a more complex correction. We shall attempt to identify the correct pattern as price develops over this week.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
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