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Thursday December 28, 2006 - 09:16:45 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Dollar rebounds on surprising US Home sales report.
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
Dollar slipped yesterday but regained some of it losses after a surprising robust US housing report which made dealers believe in less chance for a rate cut next year. With many traders away ahead of the New Yearâ€™s holiday, Forex market volumes were and remain light. US new Home sales rose to 1â€™047k vs 1â€™004k or a change of +3.4% vs -3.2%. Previously in the day the EurUsd rose to 1.3178 high helped by expectations the European Central Bank will raise interest rages further next year from the current 3.5%. Intraday, EurChf hit a 6 Â½ year high at 1.6094 drove by expectations of a raise rate in Euro Zone and by contrast the downgrade of inflation outlook for next year by Swiss National Bank which had raise rates earlier this month. The UsdJpy fell to 118.33 low before rebound to 118.73 after Jiji news agency reported late on Tuesday that the Bank of Japan is likely to discuss raising interest rates to 0.5% next month. But that decision could be postponed to February or later in the case on unexpected events.
Todays Key Issues:
GB December Nationwide House Prices due at 07:00 GMT is expected 0.8% vs 1.4% (MoM) and 9.9% vs 9.6% (YoY). US 23rd December Initial Jobless Claims due at 13:30 GMT is expected 320k vs 315k. Are due at 15:00 GMT; US December Consumer Confidence expected 102 vs 102.9, Chicago Purchasing Manager index expected 50.5 vs 49.9, November Existing Home Sales expected 6.2M vs 6.24M.
The Risk Today:
EurUsd remains still strong above 1.3050 (low from Dec 18). But 1.3130 Pivot support has been broken and will open the door for a test of 1.3050 support. Lately, it failed to slide beyond 1.3098 (76.4% retracement of the 1.3052 to 1.3246 advance) and the recovery from Tuesday's 1.3089 low now targets 1.3186 (61.8% retracement of the 1.3426 to 1.3089 decline) en route to 1.3246 minor resistance. UsdChf continued recent advance after the rebound from 1.2109, the low from Dec 20; but as long as 1.2270 (high Dec 18) remains intact, we continue to favor the downside and expect a break of 1.2109 will trigger extended weakness towards 1.2030 (61.8% retracement of the 1.1879-1.2271 rally). GbpUsd was consolidating its positive tone above 1.9435 and maintains a bullish trend; looking for a move through 1.9730 to unlock 1.9850 early December high. UsdJpy has backed off from Tuesday's 119.24 high; but only a break down 117.44 would be necessary to cancel the immediate up-trend and shift it away from psychological 120 level. Staying above 118.60 former resistance would confirm this firm tone.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.3400 T ||1.9900 S ||120.00 K ||1.2346 K |
|1.3370 S ||1.9850 P ||119.90 T ||1.2326 S |
|1.3130 P ||1.9730 M ||119.24 M ||1.2270 S |
|1.3110 ||1.9560 ||118.88 ||1.2265 |
|1.3090 M ||1.9480 M ||118.60 S ||1.2220 S |
|1.3050 S ||1.9435 M ||117.44 S ||1.2075 S |
|1.2980 K ||1.9340 S ||116.60 M ||1.1880 T |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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