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Friday December 29, 2006 - 11:09:46 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Trade volume is slowing down ahead of Year-end holidays.
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The Dollar slipped on Thursday still under pressure against the Euro and other major currencies aside from the Yen after a member of ECB Governing Council said that Euro-zone interest rates remain low in historical terms. In addition, many strategists have recently lowered their outlook expectations for the Dollar in 2007. This is helping expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates to boost economy, as other Central Banks such as ECB my raise rates again next year. US existing Home Sales was 6.28M vs 6.20M expected, Chicago Purchasing Manager Index was 52.4 vs 50.5 expected and Consumer Confidence was 109 vs previous 102.9 and 102 forecast. All previous figures helped the Dollar to recover some losses during US session. EurUsd was up 0.2% at 1.3146 retreating from a session high 1.3201. EurJpy was also up 0.45% at 156.33 after hitting a record high 156.74. UsdJpy was up 0.13% to 118.92 yesterday last business day of the year for many companies in Japan. Dealers said moves were exaggerated with many participants away for year-end holidays.
Todays Key Issues:
There is no major economic data due today; it is suggesting that trade volumes will slow down ahead of the New-Yearâ€™s holiday. Euro-Zone November M3 due at 9:00 GMT is expected 8.7% vs 8.5% (YoY) and 8.6% vs 8.4% in 3months averaged. Are due at 9:30 GMT; BBA December releases UK Mortgage Lending Figures and BoE 3Q Mortgage Equity Withdrawal expected Â£11.8B vs Â£11.3B. GB Gfk December Consumer Confidence due at 10:30 GMT is expected -6 vs -7. CHF KOF December Swiss Leading Indicator due at 10:30 is expected 1.62 vs 1.73. US November Help Wanted Index due at 15:00 GMT is expected 30 unchanged.
The Risk Today:
EurUsd remains strong above 1.3050, the low from Dec 18. The pre-Christmas slide failed to make headway beneath 1.3100 (76.4% retracement of the 1.3052 to 1.3246 advance) and we could expect new upside over yesterday's 1.3201 high which will unlock 1.3250 and then 1.3370. UsdChf remains under pressure close to Thursday's 1.2272 high. This maintains pressure on the 1.2161 reaction low from Wednesday. A break 1.2160 should bring focus on 1.2030 (61.8% retracement of the 1.1879 to 1.2273 advance). GbpUsd is still in a positive tone above 1.9435 and market would look for a move through 1.9730 to unlock 1.9850 pivot resistance. UsdJpy has backed off from Tuesday's 119.23 high, but break of the 117.44 low would be necessary to threaten the broader advance. The next important resistances are the 119.65 (late Oct 24 high) followed by the trend high from Oct 13 at 119.90.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.3400 T ||1.9900 S ||119.90 T ||1.2346 K |
|1.3370 S ||1.9850 P ||119.65 S ||1.2326 S |
|1.3250 M ||1.9730 M ||119.24 M ||1.2270 S |
|1.3175 ||1.9655 ||118.80 ||1.2201 |
|1.3130 P ||1.9480 M ||118.60 S ||1.2160 M |
|1.3050 S ||1.9435 M ||117.44 S ||1.2030 S |
|1.2980 K ||1.9340 S ||116.60 M ||1.1880 T |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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