Tuesday January 2, 2007 - 11:20:06 GMT
Share This Story
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange - https://fx.mellon.com/
Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
â€¢ JPY starts the New Year on a weak note.
â€¢ USD prospects will depend upon this weekâ€™s key US data releases.
â€¢ High-yielding NZD and AUD remain in favour.
â€¢ Holiday for some US markets today.
The year has started brightly for the EUR, with the market eager to anticipate likely themes in January. The difference between ECB and BoJ rate outlooks is significant in this regard â€“ the former in the ascendancy, the latter at risk of being pegged back even further. This certainly explains the upside risk in place on EUR-JPY
and the fresh high registered today. However, the outlook for EUR-USD will be more dependent on the nature of this weekâ€™s key releases out of the US, as they will have a significant influence on Fed policy sentiment.
The US ISM manufacturing number was originally set for today, but has been pushed back to tomorrow by todayâ€™s impromptu holiday in the US following the death of Gerald Ford. Key will be whether last monthâ€™s sub-50 reading is maintained. This will be followed on Thursday by the ISM for non-manufacturing (last month a strong 58.9) and Fridayâ€™s employment report. Until the tone of these releases is revealed the market may be reluctant to pursue USD direction that aggressively. The move above the Dec 20 high at 1.3245 is a positive step for EUR-USD
- next resistance is at 1.3295-1.3300.
With the low-yielding JPY remainng soft, high-yielding adversaries like the AUD
and the NZD
have been outperforming, although the 0.7950-0.8000 area on the AUD will be difficult to breach until the US situation becomes clearer. NZD upside could be slightly easier to come by, although 0.7200 should hold in the absence of major USD weakness.
manufacturing PMIs this morning were mixed. Markets will continue to judge these numbers with regard to developments in the corresponding data out of the US (due tomorrow). However, the relative performance amongst the various Eurozone countries will also be of interest in coming months. ECB rate hike expectations will be more robust if strength is sustained on a broad basis and is not just confined to Germany and this was a slight source of concern this morning with France diverging from Germany (see Diary box). The overall Eurozone PMI of 56.5 remains respectable.
In the UK,
manufacturing PMI was again fairly soft (51.9), adding to other survey evidence suggesting that the sector is struggling a little. Retailersâ€™ trading statements over the next couple of weeks will be watched with interest.
Data/event EDT Consensus*
Market Holiday â€“ US (equities all day, bonds, rates and FX futures
half day), Japan, Switzerland (Berne)
US ABC consumer conf (w/e Dec 31) 17.00 -2 last
Latest data Actual Consensus*
CN PMI manu (Dec) 52.4 53.0 last
SE PMI manu (Dec) 63.0 61.5 last
IT PMI manu (Dec) 55.0 54.9
FR PMI manu (Dec) 54.2 56.5
DE PMI manu (Dec) 59.4 58.6
EU PMI manu (Dec) 56.5 56.8
GB PMI manu (Dec) 51.9 52.6
* Consensus unless stated
ï›™2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."