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Wednesday January 3, 2007 - 10:06:50 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Euro and Sterling started year in a strong tone, as interest rates are likely to rise in 2007.
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
Euro-zone Manufacturing PMI in December confirmed that the industrial sector ended last year in reasonably good shape. The Overall Index of 56.5 (from previous 56.6) was a little softer than the consensus forecast and suggested that the industrial recovery has cooled a bit over recent months. Industrial production remains consistent with a solid growth of 5% par annum. The Dollar declined across the board on Tuesday, while the Euro rallied as investors began the New Year hunting high-yielding currencies. Euro, Sterling and Swedish crown made the bigger advances as Central Banks are likely expected to keep raising interest rates in 2007. Globally on Tuesday, the liquidity in Currency trading was thin because of holiday in Japan and closure of US stock market to commemorate the death of former President Gerald Ford. Japan newspaper reported that the Bank of Japan would consider raising rates at its policy meeting on Jan 17-18. EurUsd was up 0.43% to 1.3275. The EurJpy rose to another record high at 157.76 +0.4%. Euro also rose to a near seven-year high of 1.6121 and is already hitting higher this morning at 1.6154 intraday peak. In continuation of Carry-trades, the AudJpy hit nine-year high at 94.67 +0.64%.
Todays Key Issues:
Japan Markets are closed. German December Unemployment Rate due at 08:55 GMT is expected 10.1% vs 10.2% or a change of -50k vs -86k. US December ADP Employment Change due at 13:15 GMT is expected 120K vs 158K. US December ISM Manufacturing Index due at 15:00 GMT is expected 49.9 vs 49.5. US November Construction Spending due at 15:00 is expected -0.5% vs -1.0%. US Minutes of Dec. 12 FOMC Meeting is due at 19:00 GMT. Are due at 21:45 GMT; NZD November Trade Balance expected -0.84B vs -1.167B, Imports 3.72B vs 3.88B and Exports 2.86B vs 2.71B.
The Risk Today:
EurUsd having violated 1.3250 high is now targeting the 1.3292 Dec 12 high. A break of this level is expected to expose the 1.3370 trend resistance high. The near-term outlook remains constructive above 1.3130 pivot support. UsdChf is ready to take out minor support 1.2110 low. Weakness below this level should target 1.2030 (61.8% retracement of the 1.1879 to 1.2273 advance). Maintain a near-term negative bias under 1.2270. GbpUsd remains constructive above 1.9516 Christmas low. We continue to look for a move through 1.9750 to provide the catalyst for a move to 1.9850. UsdJpy is consolidating gains near the Dec 26 119.23 trend high, holding above initial support at 118.30. Still it would take return below 117.44 strong support to threaten the actual bullish trend and further advance on the 119.90 peak and 120 psychological level.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.3400 T ||1.9900 S ||119.90 T ||1.2346 K |
|1.3370 S ||1.9850 P ||119.65 S ||1.2326 S |
|1.3292 M ||1.9750 M ||119.24 M ||1.2270 S |
|1.3276 ||1.9715 ||118.85 ||1.2155 |
|1.3130 P ||1.9516 M ||118.30 M ||1.2110 M |
|1.3050 S ||1.9435 M ||117.44 S ||1.2030 S |
|1.2980 K ||1.9340 S ||116.60 M ||1.1880 T |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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