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Wednesday January 3, 2007 - 11:50:21 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange -

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Forex - Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• USD recovers in European morning – US data releases awaited.
• High-yielders remain well supported – CHF weaker.
• EUR-CHF resistance at 1.6175-90.
• US mortgage data, ADP employment, ISM manufacturing and FOMC minutes feature today.

Market Outlook

The Asian session was quiet with Japan still away on holiday, but during the European morning the USD has managed to claw back the losses seen yesterday against the EUR. The USD has also managed to move to fresh 10-week highs against the JPY. The move partly reflects the lack of followthrough to yesterday’s initial gains in EUR-USD as well as some apprehension perhaps about key US data releases during the next few days. There may also be some catch-up being played with other currencies against the JPY, as this had been dominated by the EUR and high-yielders yesterday.

The USD has fought back against the AUD after the latter (in Asia) had registered a fresh high of 0.7980 for this latest move. The high-yielders look like remaining in favour by way of contrast to the low-yielding JPY, although a break above 0.80 in nthe AUD will likely require some USD weakness.

It is the USD backdrop that is the main source of uncertainty this week and the tone of the main US releases scheduled during the remainder of the week will be significant for how sentiment develops with regard to Fed policy expectations and the USD. The ISM for the manufacturing sector is today’s main feature (see below for preview). EUR-USD has baulked at resistance around 1.3290-1.3300 and support now comes in at 1.3175-1.3200. German labour market data was stronger than expected, but this has not changed existing perceptions about ECB policy.

With global equity markets starting the year in fine form, this has been an additional weight on the CHF, which is also struggling as a member of the low-yielding currency class. However, there is a good resistance area approaching at 1.6175-90 on EUR-CHF, representing a series of past highs during 1999-2000 and this is a potential stopping point from a short-term perspective. The SNB may be keen on averting a break above this area.

EUR-SEK has been softer this morning and downside testing would be resumed on any move below 9.00. Sub-9.00 levels were pursued before Christmas but this had been taken back in the run-up to New Year. Downside is favoured.

Day Ahead
US – there are a number of releases of interest in the US today including the manufacturing ISM, weekly mortgage data, the ADP employment estimate and the minutes of the December 12 FOMC meeting. The ISM eased below 50 last month for the first time since April 2003 and the picture of a softer manufacturing sector has materialised in other areas in recent weeks – negative Philly Fed balance, back-to-back m/m declines in business sales and core durable orders. Key now is whether this is just a blip or the start of something more serious and the market will be sensitive to any news that offers strong support to either of these scenarios. The ADP employment estimate may have some influence on sentiment about Friday’s payrolls number, while the mortgage data has recently become extremely volatile. The past two weeks has seen sharp falls in mortgage applications for house purchases, taking back the strength over the previous two weeks, leaving much uncertainty about what the underlying trend actually is. The minutes will be scoured for indications from the various members about the conditions that must develop before there is any change of approach with regard to their view of inflation risks.


Data/event EDT Consensus*

JP Market Holiday
US Mortgage apps – purchases w/w 07.00 -10.6% last
US Chain store sls (w/e Dec 30) w/w 07.45 +1.0% last
US ADP employment (Dec) 08.15 +123k
US Redbook sls (w/e Dec 30) m/m 08.55 -1.6% last
US ISM manu (Dec) 10.00 50.0
US Minutes of Dec 12 FOMC 14.00
NZ Trade balance (Nov) 16.45 -NZ$0.84bn

Latest data Actual Consensus*
US ABC consumer conf (w/e Dec 31) -3 -2 last
CH PMI manu (Dec) 65.0 65.0
DE Unemployment (Dec) -108k -50k
DE Employment (Nov) +46k +35kR last
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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