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Tuesday January 9, 2007 - 09:42:20 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Dollar stabilized as last week rally on US jobs data may be overdone.
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The Dollar stabilized from a six-week high against the Euro on Monday after last week speculation rally on the back of robust US employment data which are seen as overdone. The Dollar rebound a little against the Yen as dealers awaited a possible Bank of Japan interest rates increase next week. While the Dollar eased from recent high, dealers saw this as the start of a renewed downtrend, especially in light of last weekâ€™s strong December jobs data that cut chances the Federal Reserve will loosen monetary policy any time soon. EurUsd was little change +0.27% at 1.3038 from Friday six-week low of 1.2973 on Monday. UsdJpy was nearly unchanged +0.07% at 118.71 as investors are looking to next weekâ€™s Bank of Japan policy meeting at which many expect it will raise rates. Even with a move up in Japanâ€™s benchmark rates to 0.5% from 0.25%, the Yen would still be easily the lowest-yielding currency within the majors, with the Euro at 3.5% and United States at 5.25%. UsdChf closed down -0.1% at 1.2351 from a session high 1.2413. GbpUsd was up 0.56% at 1.9401 as the Dollar was under pressure after news of an apparent gas leak in large parts of Manhattan, prompting the evacuation of a number of buildings. New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg said the odor was not dangerous and no unusual gas leaks had been found.
Todays Key Issues:
GB December BRC Retail Sales Monitor is due at 11:00 GMT. Eur November German Industrial Production due at 11:00 GMT is expected 1% vs -1.4% (MoM) and 4.6% vs 3.4% (YoY). CAD December Housing Starts due at 13:15 GTM is expected 220k vs 224.9k. AUD January Westpac Consumer Confidence is due at 23:30 GMT, previously 11.8%.
The Risk Today:
EurUsd remains heavy, having violated 1.3050 former support and 1.3030 support on last Friday (38.2% retracement of the 1.2483-1.3368 rally). The market has staged a modest recovery from the formerly resistant 1.2980 level, but only a move beyond last Friday's 1.3106 high would relieve the immediate bear threat and offset pressure on next supports 1.2980 and 1.2900. UsdChf is targeting 1.2430 (61.8% retracement of the 1.2771 to 1.1879 decline). As long as last Friday's 1.2270 low continues to provide a floor, the near-term up-trend remains intact. GbpUsd violated 1.9435 last Thursday, paving the way for extended slippage towards 1.9180. Mild resistance is around 1.9435, high from last Friday. UsdJpy is vulnerable near-term, having nearly tested the key 119.90 level last week. A loss of Friday's 118 low would further extend the downside to 117.44 strong support.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.3400 T ||1.9850 P ||120.00 P ||1.2440 S |
|1.3130 P ||1.9530 S ||119.90 T ||1.2430 K |
|1.3050 S ||1.9435 M ||119.65 S ||1.2395 M |
|1.3033 ||1.9422 ||118.94 ||1.2373 |
|1.2980 K ||1.9260 M ||118.30 S ||1.2270 S |
|1.2940 S ||1.9180 M ||117.44 S ||1.2240 S |
|1.2900 T ||1.8840 S ||115.80 S ||1.2030 T |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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