User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Tuesday January 9, 2007 - 22:15:34 GMT -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex - US Dollar (USD) Rises Ahead of Trade Balance Report

FXCM - DailyFX Fundamentals 01-09-07

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of

• US Dollar (USD) Rises Ahead of Trade Balance Report
• UK, Australia and Canada All Expecting Trade Data
• Japanese Yen (JPY) Slips As Traders Question BoJ’s Plans to Raise Rates

US Dollar
It has been a quiet day in the foreign exchange market as the US dollar continues to test the resilience of the 1.30 level against the Euro. The currency market is essentially trading sideways going into the three major event risks this week which are the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision, the US trade balance report and the US retail sales report on Friday. The ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50 percent, which means that the actual interest rate announcement should be a non-event. However EURUSD traders will be watching the accompanying press conference for details on how aggressive the central bank plans to be with monetary policy in the months ahead. As for the US trade balance, after hitting a record high back in August, we have probably seen the worst. The trade deficit is forecasted to increase from -$58.9 billion to -$60 billion due to rising imports. However with oil prices remaining low for most of November and the dollar index falling close to 4 percent that month, the deterioration in the US trade balance should be limited. Import prices, which is an inflationary indicator is also due for release. Prices are predicted to have accelerated in the month of December, which if validated, would be yet another reason to expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates on hold at 5.25 percent for a few more months. The weekly indicators released today were also mostly dollar positive. Both the ICSC-UBS and Redbook reported stronger chain store sales in the first week of January. The IBD/TIPP confidence report also rebounded from 53.5 to 53.7 while oil prices eased on hedge fund selling. Dollar bears are struggling to regain control in what may be proving to be a Goldilocks economy.

Euro traders are hanging tight for the ECB monetary policy meeting on Thursday before deciding whether or not to take the currency below 1.30. It has flirted with that level a thousand times today but dollar bulls retained control of the currency pair. Even though this morning’s German data was stronger expected, it was not enough to erase the bearishness that came from yesterday’s disappointing retail sales report. The German trade surplus hit a record high thanks to a much smaller than expected drop in exports. Given that domestic spending has been lackluster at best, it seems that foreign demand is behind the surge in business confidence. Industrial production also jumped by 1.8 percent which makes it very difficult to tell whether or not the ECB President will retain his hawkish tone. It is an exceptionally close call, which is why the meeting has the potential to be a major event risk. The right question to consider in the meantime may be whether the economy is able to handle 1 to 2 more interest rate hikes given the increase in Germany’s Value Added Tax. In the meantime, we have French industrial production and trade balance tomorrow. Like Germany, France is also expected to report acceleration in its industrial sector activity.

British Pound
As the one economy that is unambiguously healthy, the UK continues to deliver upside surprises in its economic data. Last night, the BRC retail sales monitor increased from 2.5 to 4.4 percent in the month of December, indicating that holiday sales were strong. Even though the market expects the Bank of England to forgo a rate hike on Thursday, the central bank is still expected to lift rates later this year. UK trade data and the BRC shop price index are due for release tomorrow. The strong currency is expected to cause deterioration in the trade balance but neither of tomorrow’s reports should have much of an impact on the currency. Merger and acquisition flow continues to keep the currency supported as a part of today’s sterling strength may be linked to flow related to Japan Tobacco’s recent purchase of Gallaher PLC.

Japanese Yen
The Japanese Yen continued to sell off against the majors today as the market debates whether the Bank of Japan will really be ready to lift interest rates next week. We believe that in all likelihood, even if the Bank of Japan lifts interest rates, it will not be particularly positive for the Yen. The lack of support from the Japanese government suggests that should the BoJ decide to lift interest rates at all, any rate hike will probably be followed by a prolonged period of steady monetary policy, in which case carry trades may still prevail since 0.5 percent rates would remain the lowest in the industrialized world. It appears that the market may also be expecting the same as carry trade currency pairs continue to rebound.

Commodity Currencies (CAD, AUD, NZD)
The Australian and New Zealand dollars continued to bounce today as commodity prices stabilize. Gold prices ended the day higher while oil prices ended virtually unchanged. Australian retail sales were weaker than expected which conflicts with the stronger building approvals and job ads data that we saw yesterday. The country’s November trade balance is due out tonight and improvement is expected after the sharp rise in October. Increased exports and a drop in oil prices are expected to contribute to the rebound. Meanwhile Canada will also be releasing their trade report along with building permits. The trade surplus is expected to increase as export values edge up. Building permits unfortunately are expected to drop as the housing market softens on slower economic growth. There is not much going on in the New Zealand dollar as its economic remains empty until Friday morning New Zealand time.


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 23 July 2018
A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
Tue 24 July 2018
AFlash PMIs
Wed 25 July 2018
A 08:00 DE- IFO Survey
A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 July 2018
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 12:30 US- Durable Goods
Fri 27 July 2018
AA 12:30 US- GDP
A 14:00 US- Final University of Michigan

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105