Wednesday January 10, 2007 - 14:35:37 GMT
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FOREX: GVI Monthly Forex Survey Analysis courtesy Cumino
EUR USD 3 months: 1st day close 1.3019(1.3325), av. responses 1.3033(1.3391), Adjusted boundaries 1.26-1.34(1.29-1.37).
GVI 54%(58%)COMPONENTS 12%68%20%(17%51%32%). DRY INDEX: 44%(57%).
6mstdev: 5%(5%). Boundaries 6m m.av. -/+1STD (components): (9-18) (57-72) (15-30)
EUR GVI INDEX Roughly unchanged, slightly bullish in absolute terms, a bit bearish in
relative terms. Neutrals increased.
The Index in the last four months has not been very sensitive to prices so small variations have some importance. It was the case of the excessive optimism that I pointed out here in the last comment and proved correct.
Now interestingly EUR strong Bulls lost 12% from 32 to 20 and this is normal but EUR Bears not only didnâ€™t increase but also instead lost 5% from the previous reading. This suggests that there are yet some stops around.
USD JPY 3 months: 1st day close 118.73(115.36), av. responses 115.47(113.27), Adjusted boundaries 115-123(111-119).
GVI: 27%(37%) COMPONENTS: 48%50%2%(32%61%7%) DRY INDEX: 11%(29%).
6mstdev: 7%(6%). Boundaries 6m m.av. -/+1STD (components) (21-46) (51-73) (2-7)
Very USD bearish in relative and absolute terms. Dry index at all time bearish record. Neutrals diminished. It is almost a one-way sentiment. Note that the USD strong-bearish component is near 50% meaning that half of the people are seeing USD JPY at least below 115 while almost no one is seeing the pair above 123. Moreover neutrals diminished when implied and actual volatility was diminishing, which is not the norm.
What is more worrying is that the average of responses (115.47) is near the boundary fixed for a strong bearish view. I am cautious only because this forecast is relative to early January, which is a special period. Otherwise, I would be very tempted to buy USD.
OIL 3 months: 1st day close 56.09(62.44), av. responses 59.81(61.34), Adjusted boundaries 49-63(55-69).
GVI:64%(49%) COMPONENTS: 3%66%31%(11%79%9%). DRY INDEX:75%(35%)
6mstdev: 9%(7%). Boundaries 6m m.av. -/+1STD (components): (3-20) (66-80) (4-27)
The most bullish reading ever seen in the history of GVI-Cumino Survey. I usually read the oil forecasts here more as a hope/fear related to Dollar. Coupled with the USD JPY sentiment it tends to confirm rather existing short dollar positions starting to be perceived at risk.
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