Wednesday January 10, 2007 - 14:52:09 GMT
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Global-View - www.global-view.com
GVI Monthly Forex Poll
In the latest monthly sentiment survey of professional forex dealers by global-view.com, the leading forex discussion website, sentiment for the USD against the EUR has improved. The three-month ahead mean forecast for EUR/USD was 1.3033 from 1.3391 a month earlier. The EURUSD spot price at the mid-point (January 8 close) of when the survey was being conducted was 1.3019.
The GVI-Cumino Euro bull index (Range 0-100; 0 = most bearish, 100 = most bullish, 50 = neutral) was about steady in the EUR/USD at 54 from 58 previously. The GVI-Cumino index uses a theoretical neutral option strategy to measure the intensity and direction of individual trader sentiment from price levels at the time when forecasts were made.
The USD/JPY mean dollar forecast improved to 115.47 from 113.27 one month ago. The USD/JPY spot rate at the mid-point of when the survey was being conducted was 118.73. The GVI-Cumino dollar bull index remained USD bearish. It was 27 after 28.
Traders expect the price of crude oil (WTI) to close at $59.81 in three-months time from the current spot vs. the previous $61.37 estimate.
In a special question, participants where they expected U.S. Fed Funds (now 5.25%) to close 2Q07. Exactly 50% expect no change, while 26% expect it to decline to 5.00% and 19% expect funds at 5.50%. 5% saw more than one 25bp move.
For complete detailed survey results including history see:
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