Thursday January 11, 2007 - 02:38:51 GMT
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Daily Analysis for GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.9338 ... 1.9354 ... 1.9380 ... 1.9421
Support: 1.9307 ... 1.9281 ... 1.9260 ... 1.9232
We continue to look for a base here with 1.9307 and 1.9281 supportive
Failure at 1.9421 has caused a second decline and this may just extend a little to 1.9307. We tend to favor this holding to cause a move higher but should also be aware of the small risk of loss to 1.9281-86 also. Back above 1.9338 will assist while above 1.9354 raises the chance of a reversal higher that should then move up to the 1.9421 area which could cause a small pullback. Next resistance is at the 1.9255 high and also 1.9480.
Still no break above 1.9450 but given the low at 1.9260 we will only get bullish on a break above 1.9505 and 1.9562. If seen then there is further room towards 1.9651 & 1.9708 at least. (January 9th)
Price has edged slightly below the 1.9320 level and we do see support at 1.9307 also. Only below here would extend losses to 1.9281-86 which should be observed as we still favor a reversal higher. Below 1.9280 would pressure the 1.9260 low and allow follow through to 1.9232 at least and potentially to 1.9150-86.
With no follow-through below 1.9260, while the downside is still favored this doesnâ€™t look as if it should be too strong. Only below 1.9260 allows 1.9120 and possibly lower. (January 9th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
The pullback has been deep but we note a 76.4% retracement in Wave b at 1.9307 which is also where a small internal wave equality target is in the abc pattern lower. This we tend to prefer this target for a reversal higher that we still think should move up to the 50% retracement in Wave x at 1.9505 with the prior Wave b at 1.9530.
Any earlier dip below 1.9260 suggests a possible expanded flat with a 14.6% expansion at 1.9232 and 38.2% at 1.9186.
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