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Thursday January 11, 2007 - 10:44:31 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Bank of England and European Central Bank rate decisions.
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The Dollar rallied broadly on Wednesday after a report showing the US Trade gap narrowed in November for the third month in a row. It makes an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve early in 2007 unlikely to come. The trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed to a 16-month low of $58.2bn in November, from $58.8bn, thanks to higher exports. The consensus forecast was $60.0bn. It is important to remember that the main reason for the acceleration in growth was the temporary boost from lower energy prices, which fell sharply at the start of the quarter. That boost is already fading. Growth will slow again in Q1. EurUsd was down -0.45% at 1.2938 for the second day in a row, but losses were limited by investor caution ahead of the ECB policy meeting today. ECB officials are expected to signal a rate rise to happen in February. UsdJpy was up 0.19% to 119.53 and GbpUsd was down -0.35% to 1.9322. UsdJpy accelerate from yesterday advance and went through 119.90 and 120 psychological levels.
Todays Key Issues:
Are due at 9:30 GTM; GB November Industrial Production expected 0.3% vs -0.8% (MoM) and 0.4% vs 0.6% (YoY), GB November Manufacturing Production expected 0.3% vs -0.4% (MoM) and 2.3% vs 2.5% (YoY). Euro-Zone 3Q GDP due at 10:00 GMT is expected unchanged 0.5% (MoM) and 2.7% (YoY). GB Bank of England Rate Decision due at 12:00 GMT is expected unchanged at 5%. European Central Bank Rate Decision due at 12:45 GMT is expected 3.5% unchanged. Mr. Trichet speaks at ECB monthly news conference at 13:30 GMT. US Initial Jobless Claims (January 6) due at 13:30 GMT is expected 325k vs 329k. US December monthly Budget statement due at 19:00 GMT is expected $21.7B vs $11B.
The Risk Today:
EurUsd outlook remains bearish Further weakness is favored with the focus on 1.2900 (50% retracement of the 1.2483-1.3368 rally). Note that the 61.8% retracement of the 1.2483-1.3368 climb is at 1.2820 and would be the next objective if 1.2900 is cleared. Return above Tuesday's high of 1.3053 is required to halt the current slide. UsdChf has cleared the 61.8% retracement of the 1.2771 to 1.1879 decline at 1.2430. The outlook remains constructive targeting 1.2540. Initial support lies at 1.2400. GbpUsd remains weak under 1.9456 Tuesday high. A move lower is likely to come as long as 1.9535 holds (61.8% retracement of the 1.9753 to 1.9261 decline). Further move down would expose 1.9260 and 1.9180 supports. UsdJpy has accelerated recent advance and cleared initial former resistance at 119.65 and then 119.90 and 120 psychological levels. This would pave the way for a climb towards the 121.40 (December 2005 high). Key support is at 118.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.3400 T ||1.9850 P ||122.15 S ||1.2770 T |
|1.3130 P ||1.9530 S ||121.40 T ||1.2585 M |
|1.3050 S ||1.9456 M ||120.37 M ||1.2540 S |
|1.2960 ||1.9340 ||120.20 ||1.2470 |
|1.2980 K ||1.9260 M ||119.90 T ||1.2430 K |
|1.2900 T ||1.9180 M ||118.00 P ||1.2400 M |
|1.2820 S ||1.8840 S ||117.44 S ||1.2220 S |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
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Fri 22 Dec
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Mon 25 Dec
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
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