Tuesday August 10, 2004 - 00:07:13 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc 10th August 2004Price 1.2540
Resistance: 1.2570 ... 1.2590 ... 1.2640 ... 1.2680
Support....: 1.2530 ... 1.2510 ... 1.2490 ... 1.2455
We remain cautiously on favor of the move lower to 1.2450-60 before higher
The correction higher moved to the 1.2569 level before falling away. Although this was slightly higher than expected we tend to retain a bearish stance. However, given that the longer term picture remains bullish we need to be aware of a possible earlier correction that bites deeper. Thus, only while support at 1.2510-30 holds and a break is seen above 1.2570-90 would we begin to look for a stronger move higher that we feel should reach 1.2630-50 at a minimum and we suspect to the pivot resistance at 1.2675-85. Any earlier test of the 1.2450-60 area would appear to provide a good buying opportunity.
In spite of the rally to 1.2569 we retain a cautiously bearish view. However this now needs to see a break back below 1.2510-30 and if seen would imply losses below Friday's 1.2490 low and onto the favored target support at 1.2450-60. However, we feel this should hold any decline. Further support is at 1.2400-20.
Elliott Wave Comments:
August 9th 2004
We have had to adjust the wave count slightly and the best fit we could come upw ith is shown below. Within this Wave [iii] is around 161.8% of Wave [i] although Wave [v] is quite stunted. A 61.8% retracement of Wave A is at 1.2450 and Wave (c) is equal to 261.8% of Wave (a) at 1.2460. Thus we feel this area should complete the first move. Assuming this is right we have a three wave decline and will either imply a double zig zag or a more complex correction. We shall attempt to identify the correct pattern as price develops over this week.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
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