User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Friday January 12, 2007 - 12:58:47 GMT
Black Swan Capital -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Is it weather or growth?

Key News
• Oil dropped $2.14 a barrel, or 4%, to $51.88, its lowest close since May 2005. (WSJ)
• Japan's Finance Minister Koji Omi said the central bank should help sustain the economy's expansion even as it grapples with abnormally low interest rates. (Bloomberg)
• The German economy grew at its fastest pace in six years during 2006. (BBC)
• Key Reports Due (WSJ):
8:30a.m. Dec Retail And Food Sales. Expected: +0.7%. Previous: +1.0%.
8:30a.m. Dec Retail And Food Sales, Ex-Autos. Expected: +0.5%. Previous: +1.1%.
8:30a.m. Dec Import Prices. Expected: +0.7%. Previous: +0.2%.
10:00a.m. Nov Business Inventories. Expected: +0.4%. Previous: +0.4%.


“So do we learn much of what has been behind all this by pointing to high levels of ‘liquidity’? Part of the problem here is in figuring out what we might mean by liquidity — something that Morgan Stanley’s economists will be contemplating in some detail soon. That is not just an academic exercise. Since ‘liquidity’ is often put forward as a justification for what look like high prices of many assets, figuring out what that might mean and whether it is coherent is important in figuring out what might happen in financial markets next.

“At this point I am skeptical that the concept of ‘liquidity’ has much value as an explanation. First of all, if ‘liquidity’ is meant to be a measure of the ease and cost with which people can access funds then it is hardly an explanation of the level of yields. In some ways, ‘liquidity’ is really just a description of the phenomenon to be explained rather than an explanation of it. In fact, invoking ‘liquidity’ as the cause of low yields sometimes sounds a bit like ‘explaining’ global warming in term of temperatures having gone up.”

David Miles, Morgan Stanley

FX Trading – Is it weather or growth?

Now that the “global warming” crowd has their panties all in a bunch thanks to higher than normal temperatures across the country, at least the “peak oil” crowd can take a rest. (Note: It was a little joke. Relax! We’re sure all your dreams will come true one day.)

And speaking of panties in a bunch, the floor traders at the Nymex must be having a fun week. Crude continues to get hammered lower. With four days of hindsight, we have to put our money on the good old supply and demand thing i.e. higher temperatures means we use less energy, instead of our earlier reasoning that declining liquidity was the cause for the plunge. The price action in the stock market and Japanese yen (carry-trade to be pressured if liquidity was the cause) tell us liquidity hasn’t been a problem.

Stocks vs. Crude vs. Japanese yen chart below:

But even though we chalk up the crude swoon to supply and demand dynamics of weather, it’s still odd to have such strong global growth expectations from so many quarters and also have energy prices heading into the toilet. Either growth forecasts are way overdone, or crude prices are way oversold, or more windmills, solar panels, and ugly little hybrid cars have hit the market than we realize.

We found out today U.K. growth is in decent shape, a la the surprise hike from the Bank of England. Mr. Tritchet, although a bit subdued during his post rate announcement press conference today, made it clear euro-zone growth momentum looks good (just don’t anyone share that with France—their a bit touchy on the subject). Australia’s economy continues to power ahead of expectations. Canada’s looks decent and its neighbor to the south is surprising a lot of people—including us. Japan, well, its Japan—enigma city—who knows anymore!

We, along with many others, started the year expecting U.S. growth to continue to slow—and possibly quite dramatically. The numbers say that view is wrong—but crude oil and copper are telling us to wait and see.

One of the things we’re watching, which says a lot about how long we’ve been watching this stuff, is Dow Theory. Party hats are on, yet the new high in the Industrials hasn’t been confirmed by the move in the Transports.


“The strength of the dollar depends on the strength of the economy….if there is going to be a recession, it will be brought on by the decline in collateral values, and the stock market is one of the most important repositories of collateral,” said George Soros.

And from Yogi, “It ain’t over till it’s over.”

Enjoy your weekend!

Jack Crooks, Black Swan Capital


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 17 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Wed 18 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105