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Friday January 12, 2007 - 12:58:47 GMT
Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com

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Is it weather or growth?

Key News
• Oil dropped $2.14 a barrel, or 4%, to $51.88, its lowest close since May 2005. (WSJ)
• Japan's Finance Minister Koji Omi said the central bank should help sustain the economy's expansion even as it grapples with abnormally low interest rates. (Bloomberg)
• The German economy grew at its fastest pace in six years during 2006. (BBC)
• Key Reports Due (WSJ):
8:30a.m. Dec Retail And Food Sales. Expected: +0.7%. Previous: +1.0%.
8:30a.m. Dec Retail And Food Sales, Ex-Autos. Expected: +0.5%. Previous: +1.1%.
8:30a.m. Dec Import Prices. Expected: +0.7%. Previous: +0.2%.
10:00a.m. Nov Business Inventories. Expected: +0.4%. Previous: +0.4%.



Quotable

“So do we learn much of what has been behind all this by pointing to high levels of ‘liquidity’? Part of the problem here is in figuring out what we might mean by liquidity — something that Morgan Stanley’s economists will be contemplating in some detail soon. That is not just an academic exercise. Since ‘liquidity’ is often put forward as a justification for what look like high prices of many assets, figuring out what that might mean and whether it is coherent is important in figuring out what might happen in financial markets next.

“At this point I am skeptical that the concept of ‘liquidity’ has much value as an explanation. First of all, if ‘liquidity’ is meant to be a measure of the ease and cost with which people can access funds then it is hardly an explanation of the level of yields. In some ways, ‘liquidity’ is really just a description of the phenomenon to be explained rather than an explanation of it. In fact, invoking ‘liquidity’ as the cause of low yields sometimes sounds a bit like ‘explaining’ global warming in term of temperatures having gone up.”

David Miles, Morgan Stanley


FX Trading – Is it weather or growth?

Now that the “global warming” crowd has their panties all in a bunch thanks to higher than normal temperatures across the country, at least the “peak oil” crowd can take a rest. (Note: It was a little joke. Relax! We’re sure all your dreams will come true one day.)

And speaking of panties in a bunch, the floor traders at the Nymex must be having a fun week. Crude continues to get hammered lower. With four days of hindsight, we have to put our money on the good old supply and demand thing i.e. higher temperatures means we use less energy, instead of our earlier reasoning that declining liquidity was the cause for the plunge. The price action in the stock market and Japanese yen (carry-trade to be pressured if liquidity was the cause) tell us liquidity hasn’t been a problem.

Stocks vs. Crude vs. Japanese yen chart below:



But even though we chalk up the crude swoon to supply and demand dynamics of weather, it’s still odd to have such strong global growth expectations from so many quarters and also have energy prices heading into the toilet. Either growth forecasts are way overdone, or crude prices are way oversold, or more windmills, solar panels, and ugly little hybrid cars have hit the market than we realize.

We found out today U.K. growth is in decent shape, a la the surprise hike from the Bank of England. Mr. Tritchet, although a bit subdued during his post rate announcement press conference today, made it clear euro-zone growth momentum looks good (just don’t anyone share that with France—their a bit touchy on the subject). Australia’s economy continues to power ahead of expectations. Canada’s looks decent and its neighbor to the south is surprising a lot of people—including us. Japan, well, its Japan—enigma city—who knows anymore!

We, along with many others, started the year expecting U.S. growth to continue to slow—and possibly quite dramatically. The numbers say that view is wrong—but crude oil and copper are telling us to wait and see.

One of the things we’re watching, which says a lot about how long we’ve been watching this stuff, is Dow Theory. Party hats are on, yet the new high in the Industrials hasn’t been confirmed by the move in the Transports.

Dow CHART

“The strength of the dollar depends on the strength of the economy….if there is going to be a recession, it will be brought on by the decline in collateral values, and the stock market is one of the most important repositories of collateral,” said George Soros.

And from Yogi, “It ain’t over till it’s over.”

Enjoy your weekend!

Jack Crooks, Black Swan Capital

 

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Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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