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Monday January 15, 2007 - 08:50:44 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Yen edged up as Bank of Japan is likely to raise rates this week.
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The EurUsd rebound from 1 Â½ month low on Friday as traders bought the Euro on speculation that losses from a three-day rally were overdone. The Dollar initially rallied after the government said retail sales rose last month at their strongest level since July. Fridayâ€™s volumes were lighter as US stock and bond markets closed earlier in anticipation of a holiday on Monday. The Euro rebound on Friday from previous day sell-off after the European Central Bank left rates unchanged at 3.5% and signaled an increase would more likely take place in March rather than February. Most of the major US 4Q data have surpassed expectations, supporting a strong Dollar trend over the last two weeks, and encouraged investors to roll back their forecasts for the timing of the first rate cut from the Federal Reserve. EurUsd was up 0.23% at 1.2923. EurGbp was down -0.54% at 0.6596 near its intraday and new 2 Â½ year low 0.6593. GbpUsd rose 0.76% at 1.9591, extending gains of the previous day when the Bank of England surprised markets by raising interest rates to 5.25%. UsdYen edged lower at 120.33 after having done new 13-month high 120.74 as investors believe the BoJ is likely to raise overnight rates to 0.5% at this week policy meeting despite opposition from the government.
Todays Key Issues:
US markets Holiday. Are due at 9:30 GMT; GB December Producer Price Index Input 0.3% vs 0.1% (MoM) and 1.4% vs 2.8% (YoY), GB PPI Input 0.1% vs 0% (MoM) and 2.2% vs 1.8% (YoY), GB PPI Core 0.2% unchanged (MoM) and 2.5% vs 2.4% (YoY). Euro-Zone November Industrial Production due at 10:00 GMT is expected 0.8% vs -0.1% (MoM) and 3% vs 3.6% (YoY). JPN December Domestic Capital Goods Price Index due at 23:50 GMT is expected 0% vs -0.1% (MoM) and 2.5% vs 2.7% (YoY).
The Risk Today:
EurUsd outlook remains bearish from last week weakness which test supports at 1.2925 and 1.2900 (50% retracement of the 1.2483-1.3368 rally). Further downside focuses at 61.8% retracement of the 1.2483-1.3368 climb on 1.2820. Strength above last weekâ€™s high of 1.3050 would halt the current slide. UsdChf has cleared the 61.8% retracement of the 1.2771 to 1.1879 decline at 1.2430. The outlook remains constructive with target on 1.2540. Initial support lies at 1.2400. GbpUsd's last week rebound rise through 1.9456 former resistance and broke up following former resistances 1.9530 and 1.9570 (61.8% retracement of the 1.9755 to 1.9260 decline). Further strength would expose 1.9755 (Jan high). Initial support is now at the former 1.9570, but only return down 1.9456 would reinstate a short-term bearish theme. UsdJpy has resumed the bull trend, clearing 119.90 (Oct high) and 120 psychological level. This is exposing the 121.40 high from December 2005. Initial support lies at 119.90 and key support is at 118.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.3130 P ||1.9850 P ||122.15 S ||1.2770 T |
|1.3050 S ||1.9755 S ||121.40 T ||1.2585 M |
|1.2980 K ||1.9625 M ||120.37 M ||1.2540 S |
|1.2936 ||1.9613 ||120.26 ||1.2465 |
|1.2900 T ||1.9570 S ||119.90 T ||1.2430 K |
|1.2820 S ||1.9315 S ||118.00 P ||1.2400 M |
|1.2771 S ||1.9180 M ||117.44 S ||1.2220 S |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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