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Tuesday January 16, 2007 - 09:20:47 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Dollar rally slowed during Martin Luther King Day holiday.
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
Euro consolidated in quiet market and thin volumes because of Martin Luther King Day holiday in the US. Last week strong data releases on the US economy, including jobs and retail sales number have lowered expectations of a near-term interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve. In Contrast, European Central Bank signaled that the Central Bank would wait till March before raising rates from the current 3.5%, disappo8inting those who had bet on a February move. Market is waiting Bank of Japan rate decision; investors believe the BoJ is likely to raise overnight rates to 0.5%, the highest since 1995, despite warnings from officials that the Central Bank should wait to support recovery from deflation. Japanâ€™s vice finance minister Hideto Fujii said on Monday he hoped the BoJ would support steady economic growth through its policy. Japanese newspapers reported at the weekend the BoJ was likely to lift rates this week, viewing the economy as strong enough to withstand a rate rise and believing consumer spending will stay on a rising trend. EurUsd was up 0.1% at 1.2935 rebounding from 1 Â˝ month low of 1.2866 hit on Friday. The Euro has lost around 2% so far this year. GbpUsd extended gains by 0.3% at 1.9643, move which started after the Bank of England surprised markets with a rate rise last week. GbpJpy hit an eight-year peak at 236.60 +0.37%. EurJpy was also up at 155.79 up 0.18%. UsdJpy was nearly unchanged +0.1% at 120.44 from Fridayâ€™s peak 120.74.
Todays Key Issues:
Are due at 9:30 GMT; GB December Consumer rice Index expected 0.4% vs 0.3% (MoM) and 2.8% vs 2.7% (YoY), GB December Retail Price Index expected 0.6% vs 0.3% (MoM) and 4.2% vs 3.9% (YoY). German ZEW January survey Economic Sentiment due at 10:00 GMT expected -10.5 vs -19. GB BoE speaks on monetary Policy at 12:00 GTM. CAD Bank of Canada Rate Decision due at 14:00 GMT expected 4.25% unchanged. NZD 4Q Consumer Prices due at 21:45 GMT expected 0% vs 0.7%.
The Risk Today:
EurUsd maintains a weaker tone overall with gains over the past 24-hours being viewed as a correction. More weakness could come towards 1.2820 (61.8% retracement of the 1.2483-1.3368 advance). New strength above 1.3016 is required to halt the slide. UsdChf outlook remains constructive with target on 1.2540 and 1.2585 resistances. Initial support lies at 1.2400 and we would expect this level to hold near-term. GbpUsd holds onto recent gains and potential now exists for a test of 1.9753, 2007 high. A break is required to exposed key resistance at 1.9850 which is last year's high. Look for support to come in at 1.9428 Fridayâ€™s low. UsdJpy recent consolation is seen as a bull flag formation suggesting further gains are likely near-term. Last week's break of 119.90 has exposed the 121.41 high from December 2005 with key support at 118. However from an intraday perspective, 119.90 marks initial support.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.3130 P ||2.0000 T ||122.15 S ||1.2770 T |
|1.3050 S ||1.9850 P ||121.40 T ||1.2585 M |
|1.2980 K ||1.9753 S ||120.37 M ||1.2540 S |
|1.2965 ||1.9670 ||120.35 ||1.2455 |
|1.2900 T ||1.9570 S ||119.90 T ||1.2430 K |
|1.2820 S ||1.9428 M ||118.00 P ||1.2400 M |
|1.2771 S ||1.9315 S ||117.44 S ||1.2220 S |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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