User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Wednesday January 17, 2007 - 22:13:28 GMT -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex - Japanese Yen (JPY) Sells Off as BoJ Rate Hike Expectations Tumble

DailyFX Fundamentals 01-17-07

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of

• Japanese Yen (JPY) Sells Off as BoJ Rate Hike Expectations Tumble
• US Dollar Shrugs Off Stronger Inflation and Housing Data
• British Pound Extends Rally on Firmer Employment Data

US Dollar

The US Federal Reserve has kept interest rates steady for over 6 months now and today’s data releases suggests that they could continue to leave rates at 5.25 percent for another six months. Not only did producer prices increase more than expected on both a headline and core level thanks to higher oil prices in December, but industrial production also accelerated by the fastest pace growth in five months. Even though we have seen a slowdown in the regional manufacturing reports, the industrial production report seems to have aligned well with the strength that we saw in the national ISM index. What is even more encouraging though is the fact that homebuilder sentiment rose to a 6 month high. The increase in buyer traffic suggests that the housing market may be bottoming. With inflation remaining high, the labor market improving, the housing market bottoming and consumer spending accelerating, the Federal Reserve has no reason to change their current monetary policy stance. The only piece of disappointing data released today was the Treasury’s report on net foreign purchases of US securities. The market was looking for inflow valued at $75 billion, but actual inflow was only $68.4 billion. The details of the data indicate that the biggest demand was for corporate bonds by private investors. Central banks continued to be net buyers of dollar denominated investments, but their purchases have been slowing. Given that the inflow is still in excess of the same month’s $58.2 billion trade deficit, the report was not entirely dollar bearish. The Beige Book report was mixed, though the tone still contained more hawkishness. Even though the individual districts saw expansions in manufacturing and retail sales along with a tighter labor market, at the same time, they felt that the housing market was continuing to soften. Looking ahead we are expecting consumer prices, housing starts, leading indicators and the Philly Fed report tomorrow. We continue to expect more dollar positive news since CPI has a good chance of rising like PPI. The rebound in homebuilder sentiment also suggests strength in housing starts. Although it is worth noting that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is scheduled to testify before the Senate Banking Committee tomorrow, we doubt that he will veer away from his topic on the “Long Term Fiscal Challenges” that the US faces.


The Euro is holding on strong in the face of firmer US data. This morning’s inflation data was in line with expectations. Consumer prices rose 0.4 percent in the month of December which left the annualized pace of growth unchanged at 1.9 percent. The YoY core price growth also remained unchanged at 1.5 percent. The trade surplus in the Eurozone fell short of expectations, but the revision in the prior month was quite substantial. None of the European data was market moving, but it seems that Friday’s 1.2866 low is proving to be strong support for the EUR/USD. Given the strength of today’s US data, if consumer prices also prints strongly, then there is a good chance that the currency could attempt to test that level. There is no meaningful Eurozone data due for release tomorrow, but the ECB will be releasing their monthly bulletin which could shed some light on the current economic situation as well as the outlook for inflation.

British Pound

The British pound continues to be one of the best performing currency pairs in the market. The currency has extended its gains against both the US dollar and the Euro for yet another trading day. Employment data released this morning for the month of December was stronger than expected thanks to a larger drop in jobless claims. Wage growth slowed for the month of November however but that failed to undermine the overall strength of the UK economy. The Bank of England still has reason to raise rates again in the first quarter, which leaves them as the most aggressive central bank in the G7. Retail sales are due out tomorrow along with money supply and housing data. It would be surprising if retail sales were not strong because it is unlikely that the central bank would raise interest rates otherwise. Money supply data, which is another measure of inflation, should also be firm after the rise we saw earlier this week in consumer and producer prices.

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen is the star of the market tonight as traders gears up for what could potentially be the second rate hike in six years. With as many no rate hike calls as rate hike calls reported by the media, the decision is simply a coin toss at the moment. The markets went from pricing in an 80 percent chance of a rate hike yesterday to 30 percent today. Data overnight was yen bearish with the trade balance shrinking and consumer prices dropping. We continue to believe that if there was a time for the BoJ to lift rates, it would be now. The Japanese Yen is trading at very low levels against the Euro, US dollar and British pound which is already providing stimulus for the economy. Therefore a rate hike at this time will probably not deal a significant blow to the economy. The recent comments from Japanese government officials suggest that they are no longer as staunchly against a rate hike as they use to be. As a result, we continue to believe that the most likely outcome tomorrow is a 25bp rate hike followed by an attempt to temper the market’s reaction to that move by signaling that another rate hike may be a long way off. At this point, with the yen continuing to slide and rate hike expectations dropping so significantly, a move by the BoJ may actually still a cause a meaningful rally for the yen.

Commodity Currencies (CAD, AUD, NZD)

The Australian and Canadian dollars are stronger today thanks to the rebound in commodity prices. The New Zealand dollar however was not as lucky as a larger than expected drop in consumer prices dragged the currency lower. For the first time in six years, consumers prices fell 0.2 percent q/q due to an 8.5 percent rally in the NZD/USD in the fourth quarter along with a 15 percent drop in oil prices during the same period. This should keep the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on hold at next week’s monetary policy meeting. Retail sales are due out tonight. Given the recent trend of New Zealand data as well as the overall health of the economy, consumer spending is expected to be weak.


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 9 July 2018
AA 12:00 EZ- Draghi EU Parliament Testimony
Tue 10 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Ind/Prod Output, Trade
AA 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 11 July 2018
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:00 CA- Bank Of Canada Decision
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 12 July 2018
AA 12:30 US- CPI
Fri 13 July 2018
A 14:00 US- Prelim University of Michigan
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105